000 AGXX40 KNHC 020634 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE THE TEXAS COAST...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF AT PRESENT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR 15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE SE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG 26N/27N. THE MOST PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE LOCAL DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL BE IN PLAY DURING THE EVENINGS. OVER THE NW GULF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUN AND MON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD EVEN FURTHER. CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W WILL MOVE WEST THROUGH THE BASIN REACHING 70W LATER TODAY...80W BY LATE FRI...AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST ON SAT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTH OF A PROMINENT ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE DRAPED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. REPORTS FROM BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOW THAT A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADES AND 8 FT SEAS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOW 20 KT SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTEROMETER PASSES HAVE MISSED THE AREA OFF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...BUT ITS PLAUSIBLE THAT WINDS TO 30 KT ARE PRESENT IN THAT AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...RESULTING THE STRONG WINDS PERSISTING WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE SWELL TO AS HIGH AS 14 FT BY THIS WEEKEND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST...AND WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STRONG WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS INCREASED PER SHIP/BUOY OBS AND AN EARLIER 0944 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. WINDS INCREASED IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY DATA SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE ENHANCED WINDS ARE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY...WITH BUILDING HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH SAT/SUN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED NE TO SW FROM ROUGHLY 26N55W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS TO AROUND 27N. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRI AND SAT AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRES CUTS OFF BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA...IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC WATERS FURTHER EAST. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST...PUSHING A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS MAINTAINS PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE TROUGHING...OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 20-25 KT NEAR THE TROUGHS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 8 FT EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROUGHS WHERE THEY MAY REACH UP TO 9 FT. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.