000 AGXX40 KNHC 011839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE TROUGH WHICH EARLIER EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN TO THE NE GULF HAS DISSIPATED IN THE FACE OF THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH WAS BUILDING WWD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF. FURTHER NORTH...A STALLED FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF IS DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME BUT STILL FIRING OFF TSTMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE N PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND E GULF INCLUDING PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED W OF THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR 15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE SE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS WWD ALONG 26N/27N WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED INCREASE ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE LOCAL DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL BE IN PLAY DURING THE EVENINGS. OVER THE NW GULF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUN AND MON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD EVEN FURTHER. CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER W ALONG 62W AS OF 12 UTC. THE WAVE IS NOW IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTH OF A PROMINENT ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE DRAPED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. AN 1124 UTC HIGH RES QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A BROAD SWATH OF 20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH LOCAL 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SOUTH OF THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE. FORECAST IS CALLING FOR INCREASING TRADES AND BUILDING SEAS. THE GFS/WAVEWATCH ARE THE MOST ROBUST WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WINDS AND SEAS. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TRADES OFF COLOMBIA APPROACH BUT NOT QUITE REACH GALE FORCE...THOUGH MAY INCLUDE WORDING FOR HIGHER GUSTS/GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE ZONE. AS SUCH WAVEWATCH STILL ADVERTISING 15 FT SEAS OFF COLOMBIA BY FRI...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE UKMET WAVE MODEL SHOWING 13 FT AROUND THE SAME TIME. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST...AND WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STRONG WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS INCREASED PER SHIP/BUOY OBS AND AN EARLIER 0944 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. WINDS INCREASED IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BUILDS WWD THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED NE TO SW FROM ROUGHLY 26N55W TO CENTRAL CUBA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS TO AROUND 27N. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRI AND SAT AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRES CUTS OFF BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA...IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC WATERS FURTHER EAST. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST...PUSHING A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH FRI. THIS MAINTAINS PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT FLOW SANDWICHED THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE TROUGHING...OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 20-25 KT NEAR THE TROUGHS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 8 FT EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROUGHS WHERE THEY MAY REACH UP TO 9 FT. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.