000 AGXX40 KNHC 301511 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH BISECT WEAK 1010 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NOSING INTO THE SE GULF FROM THE ATLC. A LIGHT PRES PATTERN CONTINUES NONETHELESS WITH BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL TRAVERSE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH LATE WED. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN OUT AS THIS OCCURS...ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF STARTING LATE WED. IN ADDITION...FRESH SE FLOW OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN...ENHANCING COASTAL FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE YUCATAN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI. 10 TO 15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW GULF BY FRI...BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE ONLY 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES TO BE A SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA. THE EXPECTED TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN...ALLOWING TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE. THIS HAS NOT STARTED YET GIVEN HIGHEST WINDS OF ONLY 20 KT...BUT HIGHER WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED BY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE WED. THIS WILL INTERACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EXPECT WINDS TO REACH AS HIGH AS 30 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT BY LATE THU OFF COLOMBIA DUE IN PART TO EASTERLY SWELL. A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC...CUTTING OFF A SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN BY SAT...AS WINDS SUBSIDE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... LATEST REPORTS FROM BUOY 41010 AND THE SETTLEMENT POINT CMAN ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND JIVE WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0130Z SHOWING A SWATH OF FRESH SW WINDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO ALMOST BERMUDA. THESE WINDS ARE SQUEEZED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALONG ROUGHLY 23N TO THE SOUTH...AND A FRONT MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW THE SW TO W FLOW TO INCREASE TO 25 KT BY LATE TODAY NE OF THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL INITIATE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THU AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM ROUGHLY 22N TO 27N INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR S OF 22N...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC...CUTTING OFF HIGH PRES BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA BY FRIDAY. THIS OCCURS IN PHASE WITH THE E TO W PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 50W...EXPECTED TO REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE WED. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE N WILL ALLOW TRADES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE WATERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THU THROUGH SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.