000 AGXX40 KNHC 290651 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1012 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W. BUOY DATA HINT OF A STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N86W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH SEPARATES THE SURFACE HIGH PRES FROM A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ON BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER ACROSS THE GULF. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT INTO TUE...AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE SE GULF. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH WED...ALLOWING WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GULF TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 02Z ASCAT ALONG WITH BUOY DATA SHOW GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY...EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 82W. THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY FROM 20 TO 25 KT FLOW IN THAT AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTED EAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS MAY PROVE TO BE ONLY A BRIEF LULL AS THE RIDGE AXIS REBUILD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ALLOWING TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUE...REACHING 25 KT OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY 30 KT BY LATE TUE ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT WEST THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 47W WILL MOVE WEST AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU. N ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 31N W OF 55W... A 02Z ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY DATA SHOWED A SWATH OF 20 KT WINDS FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EVIDENT AS WELL ALONG 30N W OF 78W DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY MIGRATING AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER LOW N OF THE AREA. THE MAIN THRUST OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PUSHING EASTWARD N OF 32N. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 25N HAS BEEN MAINTAINING THE SW WINDS TO AS HIGH AS 30 KT EARLIER TODAY BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...BUT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SAME AREA BY LATE TUE AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT LIFTS OUT BY LATE WED ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN. SEAS FURTHER SOUTH...LIGHT WINDS PERSIST WHERE THE RIDGE DOMINATES...MAINLY FROM 15N TO 25N. HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN NE OF PUERTO RICO TUE INTO WED...ALLOWING TRADE WIND FLOW E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO PICK UP THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.