000 AGXX40 KNHC 280603 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA OUTLINE A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 27N FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A TROUGH IS FORMING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...ON THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND THAT THIS MAY SPLIT THE SURFACE RIDGE LEAVING A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGN OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE/TROUGH...AND THERE ARE ONLY MODEST INCREASES IN WIND SPEED...AROUND 15 KT...ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SW GULF BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SURFACE RIDGE. WEAK LOW PRES MAY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FAR SW GULF TUESDAY ONWARD...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE RECLAIMING THE AREA FROM S FLORIDA TO TEXAS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TRIO OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE INTERACTING WITH A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA TO MAINTAIN A SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 15 TO 20 KT E TO SE FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...BETWEEN THE WAVE AND RIDGE N OF CUBA. THE SECOND WAVE ALONG 72W...AND WILL PUSH WEST REACHING NICARAGUA BY LATE MONDAY. A THIRD WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE WED/EARLY THU. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... FOR THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...THE MAIN WEATHER-MAKER THIS MORNING IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINAS PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES AREA OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS IS SPONSORING A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED CURRENTLY MOVING S OF 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. WINDS ARE INCREASING OFF N FLORIDA AN N OF THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A 00Z QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY DATA SHOWED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE FRONT STALLS N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MON INTO TUE AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND 25N. MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OFF THE ATLC WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY STARTING TUE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.