000
AGXX40 KNHC 260430
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA THROUGH TEXAS. THE 
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE GULF THROUGH 
TODAY...LEAVING LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL START TO PICK 
UP IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 
80W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PUSHES WEST INTO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. THIS WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE 
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER 
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD TO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH 
JUST TOUCHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NE GULF...BUT LIKELY NO MORE THAT 15 
KT.

CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST THROUGH 80W INTO THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE YUCTAN PENINSULA TO 
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COAST NEAR THE NICARAGUAN/HONDURAN BORDER. THIS AREA OF 
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY 
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER CYCLONE SHIFT WESTWARD. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTEROMETER DATA AND REPORTS FROM BUOY 42058 
INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT TRADES REMAIN ACTIVE OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN...WHERE A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS 
IN PLACE SOUTH OF A SURFACE RIDGE N OF CUBA. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW 
IS NOTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL 
LIKELY INCREASE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC WATERS S OF 31N W OF 55W...
DATA FROM A 23Z SCATTEROMETER PASS AND BUOY 41049 SE OF BERMUDA 
INDICATE AN AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS...BETWEEN 1025 
MB HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A WEAK TROUGH WEST 
OF BERMUDA. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACCOUNTING FOR 20 KT SW WINDS AT THE 
SETTLEMENT POINT CMAN AS WELL AS A NEARBY SHIP. OTHERWISE...A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N55W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. 
THIS IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE 
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15 TO 20 KT TRADES SHOWING UP SOUTH 
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 15N. SW WINDS 
OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND E OF N FLORIDA WILL 
INCREASE STARTING TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING 
THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE 
SUBTROPICAL W ALTC WATERS N OF 25N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED OTHERWISE.
 
WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.