000
AGXX40 KNHC 190634
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ATLC...
SUB NORMAL TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH MON AS THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW WELL NE OF 
THE AREA NEAR 30N20W AND THE BROAD TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE 
W-CENTRAL N ATLC. HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS SUPPRESSED 
AND SHIFTS E AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 
BROAD TROUGH SKIRTS THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W TONIGHT 
INTO SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 09N ALONG 44W/45W WILL 
GRADUALLY GAIN SOME LATITUDE AS IT MOVES W AT 10-12 KT TOWARD THE 
CARIBBEAN AND AWAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE E ATLC. OVER 
THE SW N ATLC...A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE E COAST 
OF THE U.S. LATE SUN AND REACHES ITS MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE ALONG 70W MON.
GIVEN SUCH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IT IS NOT SURPRISING THE 
MODELS HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN ITS EVOLUTION. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN 
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A BROADER TROUGH WHILE THE UKMET/NOGAPS/CMC
DEPICT A SHARPER NARROW TROUGH. THE DIFFERENCES ARE REFLECTED AT THE 
SURFACE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF COLD FRONT MAKING IT TO ABOUT 27N BY LATE 
MON WHILE THE COLD FRONT DEPICTED IN THE OTHER MODELS MAKES IT INTO 
S FLORIDA ALONG WITH A DEEPER SFC WAVE JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS. 
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE BOTTOM LINE 
IS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR JUNE SWEEPS INTO THE N PORTION OF 
THE SW N ATLC BY LATE MON WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT 
POSSIBLY 30 KT ALONG 30N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN...
2250 UTC HIGH RES QUIKSCAT SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 20+ KT WINDS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 68W...SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED FURTHER S
THAN NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 
DAYS...WITH FRESH TRADES CONFINED TO AREAS S OF 16N. THE TROPICAL 
WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 44W/45W WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON 
SUN. THE WAVE SHOULD BE DRAWN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS 
WEAK DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW DEVELOPING OVER 
THE WESTERN N ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE 
PATTERN THROUGH SAT...THEN SLIDE SW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SUN AND 
MON AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW IN THE 
WESTERN N ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK SLIDES THROUGH THE FAR NE GULF ON 
MON. 

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.