000 AGXX40 KNHC 181817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLC... TRADE WINDS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK THROUGH MON AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW NEAR 30N20W AND THE BROAD TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC. HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT E AS THE COLD FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BROAD TROUGH...AND DIPPING S OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...PUSHES NE. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 08N ALONG 43W WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS IT TRAVELS W TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN AND AWAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. OVER THE SW N ATLC...THE MODELS DISAGREE BY FRI WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE WAVE NW OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH SOME MODELS ALLOWING A DEEPER WAVE TO DEVELOP FARTHER S THAN OTHERS AND ALLOWING WINDS TO PICK UP TO NEAR 25 KT OVER FAR N WATERS FRI-SAT BEFORE THIS WAVE WRAPS N INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS TOWARD A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WRAPS INTO THE DOMINANT LOW EARLIER. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DOMINANT SURFACE LOW...WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE CMC SENDING THE COLD FRONT INTO NW WATERS MON. CARIBBEAN... LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH FRESH TRADES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE REGION. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 43W WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN. THE WAVE SHOULD BE DRAWN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS WEAK DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN THROUGH SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 93W S OF 20N SHOULD PASS W OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE ON CARRYING THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW IN THE WESTERN N ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE NE GULF ON MON...WEAKENING THE HI PRES SYSTEM AND SHIFTING IT W. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.