000
AGXX40 KNHC 140812
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK 1018 MB BROAD HIGH PRES CENTER AT 28N86W HAS RIDGE 
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF GULF WITH MAINLY GENTLE BREEZE 
AND SLIGHT SEAS.  VERY DRY AIR MASS MAKES PRESENT POSSIBILITY OF 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION QUITE DIFFICULT.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
RIDGE BRING MODERATE E BREEZE ACROSS GULF S OF 25N.  SURFACE 
REFLECTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST E OF YUCATAN PENINSULA 
COULD INTRODUCE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SE PORTION OF BASIN BUT 
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX REFLECTS AS SURFACE TROUGH AT THE  
LOWER LEVELS.  MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VORTEX OVER YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TODAY THEN DRIFTING W INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE MON.  
MEANWHILE...WIDE SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS ON E SIDE OF 
VORTEX ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN...GREATER ANTILLES INTO SW N 
ATLC.  GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCES DEEP CONVECTION 
ACROSS ENTIRE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH DEBRIS MOVING E OVER WEAK 
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA...BRINGING HUMID AIR MASS OVER 
ISLANDS CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONCE DAYTIME 
HEATING TAKES HOLD.  TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W-68W S OF 16N IN 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS.  WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD AT 15 KT REACHING 73W MON...AND 
83W WED.  PRESENT ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS 
WAVE MOVES INTO MOISTURE LADEN WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  

SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 65W...    
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS AS MAIN FEATURE IN SW N ATLC 
EXTENDING SW INTO WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO UPPER VORTEX MENTIONED 
ABOVE.  UPPER DIFFLUENT E OF TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
MOVING E OF AREA LATER TODAY.  HIGH PRES 1023 MB OVER CENTRAL 
ATLC NEAR 28N54W EXTENDS RIDGE SW TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 
27N MON AND TUE.  LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF COAST OF 
CAROLINAS TUE AND WED INCREASING SW FLOW N OF 28N. 

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.