000
AGXX40 KNHC 121845
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER...ANALYZED 1015 MB NEAR 27N85W...HAS A 
RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MAINLY GENTLE BREEZE AND 
LIGHT SEAS. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE ALONG THE SE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE 
SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS BLOWING...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE YUCATAN COAST WHERE NE TO E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE 
OCCURRING DURING THE EVENINGS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS 
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO...A WEAK RIDGE WILL 
MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH MON. THE ATLC 
RIDGE WILL BUILD WWD INTO THE GULF REGION ON TUE PRODUCING 
MAINLY MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.    

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W. THE MOST RECENT QSCAT PASS 
SHOWED PRETTY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH 
WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE WWD ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN 
DURING THE WEEKEND REACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN. 
MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
IS HELPING TO INDUCE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NEAR NOAA BUOY 42058 LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 57W 
S OF 14N MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO ENTER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA SAT MORNING REACHING 70W MON...AND 75W TUE. 
ELY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT...MAX SEAS OF 7 FT AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS FOLLOW THE WAVE. AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS IS 
EXPECTED ON TUE AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE N OF 
AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW.  

SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 65W...    
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SW N 
ATLC EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A CUT-OFF LOW HAS 
DEVELOPED NEAR 24N75W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS 
UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
NEAR A SFC TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 29N67W TO 25N72W. SLY WINDS OF 
20 KT AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE FOUND WITHIN 240 NM E OF TROUGH N OF 
27N. THIS SFC TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO MOVE N OF AREA IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL BUILD 
WWD ALONG 27N SAT THROUGH TUE. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF 
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE MON AND MOVE N OF BERMUDA WED WITH 
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING MAINLY WWD ALONG 31N. SW TO W 
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT WILL AFFECT THE AREA N OF 28N TUE. 

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.