000
AGXX40 KNHC 100601
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE DISCUSSION AREA 
W OF 78W AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 
60W...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SQUEEZED BETWEEN THESE TROUGH WITH 
ITS MEAN AXIS ALONG 67W. A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SE 
INTO THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ATTM...AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO 
PUSH THE TROUGH EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS BECOMING MORE POSITIVE 
TILT AND ORIENTATED NE TO SW FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL AMERICA BY 
MIDDAY THU...THEN THE TROUGH QUICKLY FILLS OVER THE SUBTROPICS 
LEAVING A CUT OFF CYCLONE OVER HONDURAS FRI AND SAT. THE LATEST 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS UPPER CYCLONE WILL DRIFT NW REACHING OVER 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON. 

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW LEVEL FORECAST. IT APPEARS 
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER FL AND ANOTHER ALONG 73W E 
OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN. THE RESULTANT BROAD TROUGH SEPARATES 
SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 29N88W FROM AN ATLC 
E TO W RIDGE ALONG 28N. CONVECTION BURST NEAR 25N72W BUT IS 
CURRENTLY WEAKENING. FURTHER S...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W WILL 
MOVE UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TODAY AND 
TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT 
NEAR 15N81W. THIS LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

THE TROPICS E OF 77W IS DOMINATED BY 15 TO 20 KT ELY TRADES 
EXCEPT 20 TO 25 KT NEAR 13N70W. EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE TODAY 
THEN WINDS MAY BECOME E TO SE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN 
IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W IS EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 55W AROUND 
SUNSET FRI AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AROUND SUNSET SAT 
ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT NE-SE WIND SHIFT.

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.