000
AGXX40 KNHC 091549
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES 
MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 55W...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SQUEEZED 
BETWEEN THE TROUGH CRESTING AT 34N65W. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE 
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE WED AND PUSH THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH 
EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS BECOMING MORE POSITIVE TILT...ROUGHLY 
ORIENTATED NE TO SW FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDDAY 
THU. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC DISSECT THIS TROUGH EARLIER THAN SOME 
OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF TAKES THIS OPPORTUNITY TO  
DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE CMC 
MOVES THE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THAT REGION SLOWLY OFF TO THE W 
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH 
OF THE TROUGH...PREFER TO AVOID SOLUTIONS THAT QUICKLY BREAK 
DOWN THE TROUGH.  GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH...THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT SOME OF THE CARIBBEAN 
ENERGY WILL BE STEERED NORTHWARD INTO THE SW N ATLC.  THE NAM IS 
THE BEST OF THE 00Z AND 06Z MODELS WITH THE INITIALIZATION OF 
THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING INTO EASTERN CUBA AT THE MOMENT. IT 
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS ENERGY...UNLIKE A NUMBER 
OF THE OTHER MODELS WHICH PREFER TO DEVELOP SOMETHING IN THE 
BAHAMAS.  THE NAM ALSO SHOWS THE NORTHERN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 74W FUJIWARA-ING WITH THE 
ENERGY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING THE 
SYSTEM.  CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST IN THIS PART OF ITS FORECAST.  FOR 
NOW...PAINTED A BROAD BRUSH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.  WENT WITH A 
MORE PROGRESSIVE S TO N SOLUTION MOVING ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE TROUGH...MORE LIKE THE NAM...AND ALLOWED SOME 
TROUGHING TO BEGIN LIFTING N FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE 
GULF BY SAT...MOST LIKE THE NOGAPS.

E TRADES HAVE PICKED UP TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W 
ACCORDING TO THE 1054 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE 
TODAY/TONIGHT THEN WINDS MAY BECOME E TO SE CENTRAL AND E 
CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE RETRACTING E AS 
THE BROAD TROUGH FORMS NEAR THEN BAHAMAS.    

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W IS EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 45W THU AND 
55W SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN ACCOMPANIED 
BY 15-20 KT NE-SE WIND SHIFT.

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.