000
AGXX40 KNHC 090622
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE DISCUSSION AREA 
W OF 78W AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 
62W...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TROUGH 
CRESTING AT 34N71W. A RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
SE WED AND PUSH THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS 
BECOMING MORE POSITIVE TILT...ROUGHLY ORIENTATED NE TO SW FROM 
BERMUDA TO CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDDAY THU...THEN THE TROUGH 
QUICKLY FILLS OVER THE SUBTROPICS LEAVING A CUT OFF CYCLONE OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS UPPER CYCLONE 
WILL MOVE N INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON SAT AND SUN TO THE W OF THE 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT SHIFT E TO ALONG 65W.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AT THE LOW LEVELS. BASICALLY 
EXPECTING A WEAK TROUGH...OR A COUPLE OF TROUGHS WITH ONE E OF 
THE BAHAMAS...TO SET UP N OF 20N BETWEEN 73W AND 81W EFFECTIVELY 
SEPARATING SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF FROM HIGH PRES OVER 
THE ATLC THAT RIDGES E TO W ALONG 27-28N. BROAD LOW PRES IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY 
KICKED OFF AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 
80W AND 90W FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRI. 

FRESH E TRADES NOTED OVER THE TROPICS E OF 80W WITH A SMALL AREA 
OF 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECTING LITTLE 
CHANGE TODAY THEN WINDS MAY BECOME E TO SE CENTRAL AND E 
CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE RETRACTING E AS 
THE BROAD TROUGH FORMS NEAR THEN BAHAMAS.    

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W IS EXPECTED TO REACH ALONG 55W SAT 
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 
KT NE-SE WIND SHIFT.

WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.