000 AGXX40 KNHC 071944 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...WITH AN EMBEDDED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL FL...DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA WHILE A RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 27N94W AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO MON...ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD E TO W ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE TX COAST. A WEAK 1016 MB SFC HIGH WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF MON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE NW GULF MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH ALSO EXTENDS SW INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. COMPUTERS MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N83W TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FOR NOW AND BASED ON THE DISCUSSION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...WILL KEEP A SFC TROUGH NEAR 83/84W MON THROUGH WED. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH... POSITION AND EVENTUAL TRACK. CONVECTION IS AGAIN ON INCREASE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA AND LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY REVEALS SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE CLOUD FIELD NEAR 14N82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS MON AND TUE AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES IS NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE FAR EAST CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N57W TO 21N60W IS AFFECTING THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A QSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SSMI SHOWED WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRESH ELY TRADES OVER THE TROPICS S OF 18N WITH THESE ELY TRADES GRADUALLY BREAKING UP OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH TRADE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... AN E TO W RIDGE ALONG 27N DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 28N WED AND THU. E TO SE WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT ARE NOTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 65W AND THE SE BAHAMAS. THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 74W. ACCORDING WITH THE COMPUTER MODELS...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER JUST E OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER GR. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.