000 AGXX40 KNHC 070611 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT SAT JUN 06 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 78W WITH AN EMBEDDED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER SE GA TRAILING A LOW LEVEL TROUGH SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL SOMEWHAT AND BECOME ORIENTATED NE TO SW FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. BROAD LOW PRES IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR 15N83W TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THU. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT... STRENGTH...PSN AND EVENTUAL TRACK. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN BUT MEANDER OVER FL INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM ATLC HIGH PRES THAT WILL RIDGE ALONG 27N TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BY THU...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER FL SHOULD DISSIPATE ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD E TO W ALONG 27N W OF 65W TO THE TX COAST. IN ANY EVENT... EXPECT SLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE NW GULF MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU. MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT WINDS EXPECTED AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICS. FRESH ELY TRADES OVER THE TROPICS S OF 18N WITH THESE ELY TRADES GRADUALLY BREAKING UP OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. FRO NOW EXPECTING NE TO E WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...BUT SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES E OF THE WAVE AXIS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.