000 AGXX40 KNHC 061945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT SAT JUN 06 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS ALONG 83W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E ACROSS FL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO MON THEN GRADUALLY FILL AS IT LIFTS NE OF AREA TUE. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER SE GEORGIA...THEN TURNS SW INTO THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N83W AND TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS MAINLY N OF 26N. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON WHILE THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER SE GEORGIA. A RIDGE WILL BUILD E TO W FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY ALONG 27N-28N TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT 15 KT OVER THE W GULF AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SUN THROUGH WED. A WEAK 1016 MB SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO FORM WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF MON INTO TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... COMPUTER MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA... AND A QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1030 UTC THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH NEAR THE EDGE OF THE SWATH...SHOWED THAT WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE SE BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN LATE MON THROUGH THU WITH WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE AND MAX SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE APPEARS TO A MORE DEFINITIVE CONSENSUS AS TO ANY POSSIBLE UPCOMING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS ITS FUTURE TRACK...PARTICULARLY SINCE THIS IS A FAVORABLE AREA FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THIS EARLY PORTION OF THE SEASON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 59W S OF 20N IS MOVING W 18 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING REACHING ALONG 70W BY LATE TUE. ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS WELL AS SOME SAHARAN DUST/HAZE AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 27N MON THROUGH WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 70W. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A LOW PRES SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE SE CONUS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THIS LOW IS PRODUCING S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO SUN AS THESE CONDITIONS MOVE N OF AREA. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER GR/AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.