000
AGXX40 KNHC 051944
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WITH ITS MEAN AXIS 
ALONG 87W. IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING 
OVER FLORIDA DURING THE WEEKEND. THEN...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED 
TO FILL MON AND TUE E OF THE AREA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SE TO 24N90W TO 23N94W WITH A NARROW 
LINE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY 
IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COVERING THE AREA N OF 26N. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER 
NEAR 31N84W THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING E 
AND STALLING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT
THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD E TO 
W ALONG 27N SUN NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLY 
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W...
THE ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH BROAD LOW PRES OVER 
NORTHERN S AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG ELY 
TRADE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
MAX SEAS OF 12 FT ALONG NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS AND SEAS  
SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLC RIDGE TO 
THE N WEAKENS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE POSSIBLE 
DEVELOPMENT...PSN AND STRENGTH...OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE 
W CARIBBEAN NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS COASTS DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF 
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH WED WITH 
WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND MAX SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT AND 
AWAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A MORE DEFINITIVE CONSENSUS
AS TO THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE REGION ALONG 52W/53W S OF 
19N IS MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE WILL REACH TO ALONG 55W SAT
MORNING...THEN ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA SAT NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
BE ALONG 75W TUE AND 76W WED. E TO SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH 
SEAS UP TO 9 FT...AND A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST FOLLOW THE 
WAVE.

SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W...
AN E TO W RIDGE FROM 29N65W TO SE FLORIDA WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT S 
SAT AS LOW PRES SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE SE CONUS. SLY WINDS 15 
TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL SET UP N OF RIDGE INTO SAT. THE 
LOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE MON ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO 
SHIFT N ALONG 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER THE W PART 
OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND COASTAL 
WATERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
 
WARNINGS

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER GR/AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.