000 AGXX40 KNHC 041945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN AXIS NEAR 90W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND E GULF OF MEXICO THIS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO SOUTH TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE GULF AND RUNS FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 25N92W. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH N OF 25N. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF REGION REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO BY FRI NIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE INTO SAT WITH A WEAK RIDGE SETTING UP ALONG 25N BY SUN. MAINLY LIGHT NW TO N WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMOOTH SEAS ARE IN STORE FOR SAT...WITH SLY RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO ESTABLISH OVER THE W GULF SUN AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF US. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH BROAD LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1130 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 17N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A SHIP WITH CALL LETTER ID TBWUK35 JUST N OF THE COAST NEAR 12N70W REPORTED E WINDS OF 30 KT AT 1800 UTC WITH 7-10 FT SEAS. NOAA BUOY 42058 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NE 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. GIVEN THE DURATION AND STRENGTHEN OF THESE WINDS ACROSS THE LARGE FETCH AREA OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE RESULTANT SEA STATE IS MAXING OUT UP TO 12 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY DIMINISH DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATLC RIDGE ALSO SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. TWO OF THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...NEAR THE NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS COASTS DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL TREAT THIS POSSIBLE UPCOMING SCENARIO AS TROUGH FEATURE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 44W S OF 18N IS MOVING W 15 KT. IT WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. E TO SE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT AND A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST FOLLOW THE WAVE. SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO 29N81W. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH FROM 29N65W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SATURDAY AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM...S TO SW WINDS OF 20 KT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AND AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS BACK NORTH. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER GR/AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.