000 AGXX40 KNHC 022003 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA N INTO THE NE GULF...WITH S/W DIGGING ALONG E COAST OF MEXICO AND ACTING TO ENHANCE CNVTN ACROSS THE W AND NW GULF. TUTT LIKE TROFFING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL SUB TROPICAL ATLC SW TO THE NE CARIB AND THEN SHARPLY S TO NW VENEZUELA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N31W AND COVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC W TO 63W. THE FLOW N OF 28N REMAINS GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE...WITH A S/W ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS FORECAST TO MOVE ESE ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST STATES...AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO THE N GULF. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS S/W ALONG THE N AND NE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH THU. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HIGH E OF BERMUDA WSW TO ALONG 30N WILL WEAKEN FROM THE WEST AS S/W TROUGH AND FRONT MOVES INTO TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH WED. A WEAK GRADIENT PREVAILS TODAY ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD BOUNDARY LIFTING N ACROSS THE NE GULF AND INTO COASTAL LOUISIANA...AND A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE SE MEXICAN COAST. A FRACTURED PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALOFT IS SUSPECTED TO BE IN THE WRN GULF AND HAS INGESTED MOISTURE AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SURGE...AND IGNITING CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AND BY FRIDAY EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY AND DRIFT NORTH TO THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO COAST. BY SATURDAY RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND THE ADJACENT ATLC THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH A 20 KT WIND SURGE BEHIND IN EXTENDING ESE TO 60W...WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT 6 TO 7 FT. THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND SQUALLS MOVING INTO THE SE BAHAMAS...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT WNW NEXT 12-24 HOURS. TRADES OF 20 KNOTS OR MORE ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ATLC SOUTH OF 17N.AND THE CARIB S OF 16N...WITH PEAK WINDS AND SEAS NEAR 30 KT AND 12 FT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SOME MINOR SHIFTING OF THIS PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W/34W TODAY REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY UNDER THE UPPER HIGH...AND WILL MOVE W 15-18 KT NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-9 FT BEHIND IT. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.