000 AGXX40 KNHC 311922 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ASIDE FROM STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH STEEP SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY PLACID IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. THE OLD FRONT HAD BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE W CENTRAL GULF E NORTHEAST INTO S FL...BUT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING N ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY LOSES IDENTITY AND SEPARATES FROM THE PORTION OVER FLO AND THE BAHAMAS. SELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY TUE AND PUSH THIS OLD BOUNDARY NW AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE COASTLINES OF TX AND LA THROUGH WED. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW GULF WATERS ON THU...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE GFS IS WEAKER AND MORE NORTHERLY WITH THIS FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. CARIBBEAN... MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BROAD ZONE OF 6-8 FT SEAS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND W CARIB...WITH PEAK SEAS SUGGESTED BY WWIII AROUND 10 FT OFF OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE...AND MAINLY A SLIGHTLY WRN SHIFT OF THIS WIND AND SEA PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT SHIFTS SW THROUGH TUE...BUT IT WILL BE REINFORCED AS IT MERGES WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA MON/TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 59W S OF 11N WILL MOVE INTO THE EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN MON...PASS 65W ON TUE...AND MOVE ALONG THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN BY THU. THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING UNDER A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 04N32W. THIS CONFLUENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL ATLC... ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 28N IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY W UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC REACHING 40W TUE AND APPROACHING THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA LATE THU AND THE ERN CARIB FRI. THE ITCZ REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE S FROM ITS NORMAL POSITION...WITH SAL CONTINUING TO DOMINATE N OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ ALL THE WAY FROM AFRICA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIB. ONCE THIS SECOND WAVE PASSES E OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NEAR 04N32W...IT WILL BE UNDER A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION. A BROAD ZONE OF 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLC DIRECTLY S OF THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH...WWD TO THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH HIGHEST WIND AND SEAS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLES. AS THE ATLC HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL THIS ZONE OF MAX WINDS AND SEAS...BUT STILL REMAINING IN THE 20 KT AND 8 FT RANGE. SW N ATLC... THE WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FL COAST HAS WEAKENED WITH NO WEATHER TODAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S FL AND THE BAHAMAS NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. A S/W MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TODAY WILL NUDGE THIS BOUNDARY E OF THE BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING AND PUSH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WITH IT...WHILE THE BOUNDARY SNAKES ITS WAY OFF TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE E OF THIS WINDING BOUNDARY THROUGH MID WEEK...WHILE S FL WATERS AND THE BAHAMAS RETURN TO A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA REMAIN GENERALLY AT 15 KT OR BELOW AND SEAS 4-5 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT NEAR DEEP CONVECTION. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE SW N ATLC MON AND TUE AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH... BRINGING DOMINANTLY SE FLOW TO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THU OVER NW WATERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.