000 AGXX40 KNHC 281925 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSED THE GULF LAST NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...RELATED TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF...HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED OVER THE SE GULF. STRONG GUSTS AND HIGHER SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION ARE DISSIPATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF TODAY...MOVING E...AND EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY FRI. THEN THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY SUNDAY. F WHILE THE FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS....THE LOW PRESSURE WAVES ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THAT APPEAR TO BE DUE TO GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK IN THE GFS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE GFS HITTING THE EXACT AREA AND INTENSITY OF THESE WINDS IS SMALL. CURRENTLY THERE IS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO CONSIDERABLY FARTHER S AND OVER A LARGER AREA THAN THE GFS SUGGESTS. IN ADDITION...SMOKE AND HAZE PERSIST OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE RELATED TO WILDFIRES ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC MAINLY S OF 16N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. BUOYS 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN OBSERVING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. WHILE THE 11Z QSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 33 KT CLOSE TO SHORE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE AN UNBROKEN SWATH OF FRESH TRADES FROM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE BELIZE COAST...WITH PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIAN COASTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 10 FT. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 55W... SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE 1525Z AND 1345Z ASCAT PASSES SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W WHICH SHOULD BE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS T.D. 1 PULLS AWAY AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE REGION APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO LOCAL CONVECTION NEAR BUOY 41047 AND SHIP 3FPS9 NEAR 22N69W AND 18Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE FRI...LIKELY PRECEDED BY A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS. WILL KEEP THE 15 TO 20 KT SW FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GFS ENSEMBLE ECMWF AND UKMET...BUT LESS THAN THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PLAGUED GFS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LOSE ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT SHIFTS EAST BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...LEAVING MODERATE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN/SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.