000 AGXX40 KNHC 260657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENERALLY WINDS TO BE 10 KT OR LESS OVER MOST OF THE GULF THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICAN COASTLINES WHERE 15 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...RELATED TO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TUE...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE WED. THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THU AND FRI...BUT DISSIPATES BY LATE FRI. SE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THU...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF THE FRONT. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS HOWEVER FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AND DISSIPATES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... A 23Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 25 KT TRADES PERSISTING OFF THE VENEZUELAN COAST. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES HAVE BEEN BLOWING THERE FOR THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS...DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W IS DRIVING WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE TRADES WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS THE WAVE PUSHES BY...THEN INCREASE BACK TO 20 TO 25 KT AFTER THE WAVE PASSES. THIS IS HAPPENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE ONLY 10 TO 15 KT...BUT HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT BY BARBADOS. THE BELT OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST BEHIND THE WAVE...WITH 15 TO 20 KT WINDS NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY...DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW MAINLY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILDS FROM THE ATLC. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 55W... THE LONG ANTICIPATED TROUGH FINALLY FORMED OVER THE BAHAMAS LATE YESTERDAY. A WELL DEVELOPED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N75W...ALONG WITH BANDS OF CONVECTION. IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHETHER THERE IS A CLOSED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER UNDER THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. DATA SHOW AN AREA OF GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT NE OF THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY NEAR CONVECTION. SEAS MAY BE UP TO 9 FT NEAR CONVECTION AS WELL...ALTHOUGH AREA BUOYS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW...AND ALONG WITH THE NAM IS STILL PROBABLY A LITTLE OVERDONE SHOWING BROAD BAND OF 30 KT WINDS. THIS IS SUBDUED A LITTLE FROM EARLIER RUNS...AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MOSTLY 20 TO 25 KT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN OPEN TROUGH. GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER CIRCULATION...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL PROBABLY FORM LATER TODAY...AS IT SHIFTS NE BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM BERMUDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES FROM WED THROUGH SATURDAY. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.