000 AGXX40 KNHC 221933 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1800 UTC...THE BROAD 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N87W CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NW. THE LARGE CIRCULATION CONSISTS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN THE GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ON THE NHC WEB SITE. NONETHELESS RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SFC OBS SHOW THE STRONGEST FLOW...ELY 20-25 KT...N OF THE CENTER DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXIST E OF THE LOW AND WINDS ARE MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS S AND W OF THE CENTER. SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAX SEAS NEAR 8-9 FT N OF THE CENTER...QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE LOW NW...MOVING INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA OR S MISSISSIPPI LATE SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM S-N AND GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND MAINLY SLY IN ITS WAKE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLY RETURN FLOW MAY INCREASE NEAR THE MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTS MON AND TUE AS LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W... A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN MAINLY BETWEEN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA AND PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FUELED BY A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS...SO CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE. MORNING QSCAT DATA SHOWS E-SE 20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN ZONE WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO BE 6-9 FT BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND ENHANCED SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TSTM ACTIVITY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN DUE TO BROAD TROUGHING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW WATERS. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ELY WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AS SOME RIDGING BUILDS N OF THE AREA. WINDS/SEAS WILL CHANGE LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC W OF 55W... E TO SE 20 TO 25 KT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS N OF THE AREA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND 1005 MB LOW PRES OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO. REPORTS FROM BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST SHOW 9 AND 10 FT SEAS RESPECTIVELY...WITH 8 TO 9 SECOND E SWELL. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN A DAY OR TWO AGO WHEN SEAS WERE UP TO 18 FT. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO SUN AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST...AND THE LOW MOVES INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N55W TOWARD THE SE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS SPINNING UP ALONG THE TROUGH. SOME OF THIS MAY BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. FORECAST FAVORS A LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF....SHOWING ONLY A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WARNINGS ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.