000
AGXX40 KNHC 190753 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

CORRECTED FOR CARRIBEAN

GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC...
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS ARE WEAK WITH THE 
INITIALIZATION OF THE LOW NEAR 22N75W AT 00Z...INCORPORATING THE 
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT RAPIDLY INTO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS LOW HAS 
BEEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS GIVEN IT 
CREDIT FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS. GUIDANCE RUN BY NHC IS IN AGREEMENT 
ON SLING-SHOTTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND WESTWARD INTO 
CENTRAL FL...ROUNDING THE NE EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW EXPECTED 
TO PINCH OFF OVER FL OR THE EASTERN GULF TUE/WED. THE GFS IS THE 
STRONGEST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MOST IN 
LINE WITH THE NHC GUIDANCE FOR THIS LOW IN THE BAHAMAS.  AN 
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG NORTHWESTWARD INTO FL WITH 
THE LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON 
DEVELOPING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY N OF 
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON THU/FRI. PROGS DEPICT A WAVE ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY HERE. WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF...COORDINATION WITH HPC 
YIELDED A TRACK THAT SLOWLY CARRIES THE SYSTEM 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE WIND FIELD DIMINISHING BELOW 30 KT 
THU AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE N MOVES E OFF THE MID ATL COAST.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISRUPTED IN THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BY THE LOW IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT OFF THE NE FL COAST.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH 
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS WILL SEND 
THE SURFACE HIGH TRAILING THE FRONT N OF THE LOW OVER THE 
CENTRAL N ATLC...ACTING TO WEAKEN THE LOW AND EXPAND THE RIDGE. 
THE EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING TRADE 
WINDS ABOVE 20 KT AGAIN THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU ONWARD.


WARNINGS
ATLC...
.GALE WARNING N OF 27N W OF 75W...AMZ080.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 85W...GMZ086.

FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.