000 AGXX40 KNHC 180817 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 420 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2009 CORRECTED FOR WARNINGS SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO... THE 00Z GFS IS ON THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER CUBA AND LIFTING NORTH INTO FL AND THEN W INTO THE GULF. THIS APPEARS TO BE A BI-PRODUCT OF GRID SCALE FEEDBACK EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER CENTER WHICH KEEPS DRAGGING THE GFS SURFACE LOW EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW NEAR EASTERN CUBA IS NOT INITIALIZED AS FAR E AS ONE WOULD LIKE IN THE 00Z MODELS... LEAVING ROOM FOR A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION. THIS ALSO MAKES ME A BIT WARY OF THE 00Z ECMWF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MFL...DECIDED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM AND UKMET SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING GALES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FL COAST TODAY AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WED. CENTRAL N ATLC... THE LOW NEAR 32N53W HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT...WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD DELAYING THE DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM. THE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS ONTO A STRONGER SURFACE CIRCULATION THAN THE GFS... NOGAPS...AND UKMET. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRAW THE MID LEVEL LOW NEAR CUBA NORTHWARD WILL MOVE NORTH OF THIS DEEP LAYERED LOW WED/THU. THE 00Z ECMWF AMONG THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS WITH THIS COLD FRONT/TROUGH. THE MODEL TRENDS SINCE THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD HAVE BEEN TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...AND THIS SEEMS TO BE COMING TO FRUITION. THEREFORE...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS GENERALLY MORE PERSISTENT AND NORTHERLY WITH THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC INTO FRI. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... LIGHT TRADES CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY S OF 20N AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC AND THE THE TROUGHING OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK BACK UP ABOVE 20 KT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC BY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE ATLC IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BY THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE N ATLC. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC AND INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/EASTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THIS RIDGE. WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FAVORED FOR ITS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC...THINK ITS FORECAST IS BEST HERE AS WELL. ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 27N W OF 75W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N W OF 88W WED...GMZ084 AND GMZ086. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.