000 AGXX40 KNHC 101806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN MAY 1O 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE TEXAS COAST. WHILE THIS IS ALLOWING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TODAY...RECENT REPORTS FROM BUOY 42002 SHOW SE WINDS TO 20 KT CORROBORATE AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION AND A 12Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING A RIBBON OF SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT EXTENDING FROM THE NW YUCATAN COAST TOWARD TEXAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE NE GULF WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUE MORNING...THEN LIFT NORTH AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EXITS EASTWARD INTO THE NW ATLC ON TUE. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TUE INTO WED AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN THRUST WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH WED INTO THU. CARIBBEAN... MAIN INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO BE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A 11Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT EAST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THERE WAS EVEN AN UNFLAGGED 30 KT WIND BARB OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...ALTHOUGH THIS IS SUSPECT SINCE IT WAS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE QUIKSCAT SWATH. THE PERSISTENT EAST FLOW WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERLY SWELL IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WATERS...UP TO 10 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY STARTING TUE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST...ALTHOUGH FRESH TO STRONG FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 30N50W WEST WARD TO SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND SW...AND A 11Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED EVIDENCE OF 15 TO 20 KT FLOW BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...MAINLY W OF 75W. SIMILARLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTED S OF THE RIDGE FROM NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIP EASTWARD MON...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO CAPE CANAVERAL BY TUE NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FLOW DIMINISHES AND VEERS MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS FROM A POSITION FROM ROUGHLY 31N55W TO 27N65W TO CAROLINAS BY LATE WED NIGHT EARLY THU. HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE TRADE WIND FLOW IN A WIDE SWATH FROM NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THU INTO FRI. EAST SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRADE WIND FLOW MAY REACH UP TO 8 FT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY FRI...WITH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 7 FT PUSHING SOUTHWARD...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA STARTING THU. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.