000 AGXX40 KNHC 061845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT WED MAY O6 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED IN THE STRAITS OF FL WHERE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH...WITH SE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KT THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND BUMPING UP TO 15 KT MON AS THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE N SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THE E TO W RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER TX/NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WHILE LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NE GULF. BY THE WEEKEND...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE LATITUDE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER TX...WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS...ALLOWING THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT FARTHER S ON MON COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS AND INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE BREAKS DOWN IN THE FORECAST BY SAT AS A RESULT...BUT OVERALL...THE DIFFERENCES ARE MINOR. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC... A NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MARINERS THROUGHOUT THE BAHAMAS. A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING W OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN 71W AND 74W WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN OUT THROUGH THU. THE ATLC E TO W RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG 31N WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD LYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRI AND SAT THEN SHIFT TO ALONG 28N SUN/MON. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME FEEDBACK IN THE GFS FORECAST WHICH MAY OVER INTENSIFY THE CIRCULATION ABOUT THE TROUGH. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT INTO THU. THE FRESH E TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD S AND W ACROSS MOST THE AREA AS THE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND LIES E TO W ALONG 26N TO 28N THROUGH SUN. EASTERLY WINDS TO THE LEE OF CUBA WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NE WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.