000 AGXX40 KNHC 040658 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT MON MAY O4 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. IT WILL QUICKLY STALL AND LIFT N INTO THE NORTH GULF STATES TONIGHT. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINTAINING FRESH SE BREEZE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS. THE RETURN FLOW W OF 95W WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS E-SE WINDS TAKE OVER ENTIRE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT WED AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN STRENGTHENS. SW N ATLC... A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG 67W FROM 19N TO 27N IS MOVING WWD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 180 NM E SIDE OF AXIS AFFECTING THE E PART OF THE REGION. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH ALONG 70W TODAY THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE ALONG 74W TUE. WINDS AND SEAS E OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KT AND 8-10 FT SEAS...WHILE REMAINING UNDER 20 KT AND 8 FT W OF AXIS. HIGH PRES CENTER REBUILDS WESTWARD ONCE TROUGH WEAKENS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BRIEFLY 20 KT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE TAIL END OF ATLC TROUGH DISCUSSED ABOVE BROKE OFF AND CONTINUED MOVING W ACROSS CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 19N. SFC DATA AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0100 UTC CLEARLY SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE TRADE WINDS HAVE DEFINITELY DIMINISH ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN AS PRES GRADIENT EASE OVER THE REGION. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE MODERATE OR FRESH BREEZE THROUGH ITS PATH TO 74W THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE. E WINDS INCREASE OVER TROPICAL N ATLC TUE THROUGH THU AND LONG FETCH UNDER LARGE ATLC RIDGE BRINGS MODERATE SWELLS INTO THE AREA. ATLC... .NONE.. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER GR. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.