000 AGXX40 KNHC 251936 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 30N FROM 1032 MB HIGH PRES OVER W ATLC MAINTAIN STEADY E TO SE FLOW ACROSS ENTIRE GULF THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG E WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS WITH SHIP REPORTS INDICATING 30 KT BLOWING DIRECTLY AGAINST FLORIDA CURRENT...INDUCING HIGHER AND STEEPER WAVES TO 14 FT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. NWW3 GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE DESPITE MULTIPLE SHIP AND JASON REPORTS OF WAVES IN THE 12-14 FT RANGE. FORECAST LEANS TO REPORTED SEA CONDITIONS WHICH SEEM MORE REASONABLE. SW N ATLC... WEAKENED STATIONARY FRONT OVER ATLC FROM 31N55N TO 24N64W LOST MOST OF ITS CONVECTION AND NO LONGER ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS AFFECTING SW N ATLC. HIGH PRES 1032 MB JUST N OF 31N FORCING STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS BASIN FUNNELING THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH FREQUENT STRONGER GUSTS. WIND BLOWING DIRECTLY OPPOSITE GULFSTREAM CURRENT ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA YIELD MUCH HIGHER AND STEEPER SEAS THAN EXPECTED...SEE ABOVE PARAGRAPH. MODEL GUIDANCE NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THIS EFFECT COMING SHORT ON SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH PRES RIDGE SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY DUE TO SUBSIDING EFFECTS OF RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TILL TUE AND WED WHEN HIGH PRES CENTER WEAKENS...ALBEIT NOT MUCH ...AND DRIFT E. MEANWHILE...STRONG NE TO E FLOW ACROSS BASIN S OF 27N MAINTAIN LONG FETCH ON SE SIDE OF RIDGE YIELDING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS...ALSO PROPAGATING THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES INTO GULF AND CARIBBEAN. MODELS HINT AT RIDGE WEAKENING LATE TUE AND WED...BUT REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE MIGHT MAKE THIS MINOR WEAKENING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HEALTHY PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN SW N ATLC HIGH PRES AND COLOMBIAN 1010 MB LOW PRES CONTINUE TO FORCE STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN BASINS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 30 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS BUILD TO 9 ACROSS E CARIBBEAN AND TO 11 FT WRN CARIB...12 FT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA. TROPICAL ATLC SEAS BUILD AS LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ADD MODERATE SWELLS SUN AND MON. ATLC... .NONE.. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.