000
AGXX40 KNHC 101936
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 27.5N. SLY RETURN 
FLOW AT 15-20 KT OVER WATERS E OF 95W ATTM. THE GRADIENT HAS 
BACKED OFF OVER THE GULF W OF 95W AS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK COLD 
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE EXTREME NE TX AND EXTREME SW LA COASTAL 
WATERS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF TOWERING 
CU IS EVIDENT FROM W FL TO NEAR BRO TX ATTM BUT WINDS BETWEEN 
THIS TROUGH AND FRONT TURN TO THE SW AGAIN. EXPECT N SEGMENT OF 
COLD FRONT TO REACH FL BIG BEND SAT NIGHT BEFORE STALLING BUT 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT FROM ROUGHLY 
EXTREME SE LA TO NEAR 23N96W. FRONT SEEMS A LITTLE STRONGER THAT 
CONFUSED GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AND EXPECT NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 
15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME SE AGAIN 
ENTIRE GULF SAT NIGHT WITH NEXT COLD FRONT ALONG TX COAST AROUND 
LATE SUN NIGHT OR AT SUNRISE MON. MODELS RUNS STILL ADJUSTING 
THE STRENGTH AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SECOND FRONT. 
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THIS FRONT GETS SOME NW REINFORCEMENT 
MON NIGHT AND TUE MOVING IT TO THE SE GULF TUE NIGHT. REMNANTS 
OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK N OVER THE W GULF WED IN ADVANCE OF 
THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TX COAST LATE THU.

N ATLC...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N57W 25N70W IS BEGINNING TO 
LIFT N ACCOMPANIED BY TCU. HIGH PRES JUST S OF BERMUDA RIDGES W 
TO FL E COAST AT 27.5N. SLY FLOW N OF THIS RIDGE AT 15-20 KT AND 
CONTINUING TO LATE SAT WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW 
WATERS. HOWEVER...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE GA 
COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S OVER THE SOUTHERN 
BAHAMAS SUN ALLOWING THE FRONT TO REACH PSN FROM BERMUDA TO THE 
FL STRAITS MON WHERE THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS AND 
DISSIPATES MON NIGHT AND TUE. NLY WINDS TO 15-20 KT WILL FILL IN 
OVER AREA N OF FRONT BECOMING SLY AGAIN OVER THE NW PART EARLY 
MON WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST TUE NIGHT 
REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SE BAHAMAS LATE WED NIGHT.         

CARIBBEAN...
SE FLOW AT 15-20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE WELL 
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH OCNL SURGES 20-25 KT SW GULF OF HONDURAS 
WITH THE SEAS REACHING MAX OF 8 FT. OTHERWISE NE-E TRADES 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN 
WHEN THE ATLC RIDGE LIES OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE GRADIENT 
RELAXES IN THE DEEP TROPICS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH 
MOSTLY NE-E 10-15 KT EXCEPT ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG COAST 
OF COLOMBIA.

ATLC...
.NONE.. 

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.