000 AGXX40 KNHC 011935 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 335 PM EDT WED APR 01 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EAST OF 60W AND IS MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. NEXT LONGWAVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA BUT EXTENDS EAST TO ABOUT 95W. BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGH IS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY CONTRACT AS THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW EXTENDS EASTWARD NORTH OF 25N. BY SATURDAY MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF 25N. THESE WESTERLIES WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A VERY STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. BY MONDAY MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM 75W TO 95W. SURFACE... THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE CONTROLLED BY BASICALLY THREE LOW PRESSURES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED TROUGHS. THE FIRST WILL HAVE THE LEAST IMPACT AND WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE ABSORBED BY THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND LOW WHICH IS OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR MEMPHIS LATE THURSDAY THEN TURN NORTHEAST AND BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXTEND TO THE SOUTH GULF OF MEXICO AND AS THE LOW TURNS NORTHEAST THE TROUGH WILL WITHDRAW FURTHER NORTH TO BE NORTH OF 25N OVER FLORIDA BY LATE FRIDAY THEN WEAKEN SOME OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND REMAIN WEAKLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE NEXT AND MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO OVER ILLINOIS MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONTAL TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND WILL DEVELOP STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN GALE FORCE. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE IN THE ATLANTIC AREA MOSTLY NORTH OF 25N. MODEL SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER LL. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.