000 AGXX40 KNHC 301944 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE COAST OF YUCATAN...AND WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUOYS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW OVER THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF WHERE SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IS EVIDENT ON SCATTEROMETER AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE A DEEP 992 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF WATERS TUE. THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO A POSITION FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY WED...BUT STALL...WEAKEN THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE WED...AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT LIMITED TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WED NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY WED. THE MORE SOUTHERLY PENETRATION OF THIS LOW WILL PROMOTE A STRONGER COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF WATERS BY LATE THU AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. 20 TO 25 KT FLOW IS EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS FRONT INTO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI INTO SAT FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE GULF WATERS...STALLS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. SE RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SAT. CARIBBEAN... SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE USUAL EXCEPTION OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE WINDS TO 25 KT ARE NOTED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z. THE BRIEF RESPITE IN TRADES IS BROUGHT TO US COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...DISPLACING THE RESIDENT HIGH PRES MORE TO THE EAST. THE RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF...AS SE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRES BUILDING NE OF THE BAHAMAS TUE INTO WED BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INCREASE FURTHER WED INTO THU AS A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF BY LATE THU. TRADES DIMINISH INTO SAT HOWEVER AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z SHOWED ONLY AROUND 20 KT SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUOYS SHOW VERY LIGHT FLOW W OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE FRONT BECOMES ORIENTED MORE E TO W ON TUE...DISSIPATING ALONG ROUGHLY 26N...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING INTO WED IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST...WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY WED AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THROUGH THE SE U.S. THE SECOND FRONT MOVES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE WED...THEN WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH...LEAVING HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU. THE PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF THU INTO FRI...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AGAIN OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST...AHEAD OF A THIRD COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST BY FRI AFTERNOON. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT HOWEVER AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA SAT. ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.