000 AGXX40 KNHC 300643 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CDFNT STILL MOVING SE OF FL STRAITS BUT HUNG UP OVER YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG E COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED TSTMS OVER WARM GULF STREAM ATTM BUT DECREASING WITH TIME. N WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 26N E OF 86W AND EXPECT SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO NE 15 KT IN A FEW HOURS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 7 FT MAX. SOME REMNANTS OF FRONT WILL MOVE BACK N OVER FL STRAITS AND S CENTRAL GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS N. ASSOCIATED NE TO SE WINDS SHIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ONLY BE IN 10-15 KT RANGE. SE RETURN FLOW AT 15 KT ALONG TX COAST AND EXPECT 15-20 KT OVER GULF WATERS S OF 27N W OF 95W BY SUNRISE THIS AM WITH 15-20 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING E TO ALL WATERS SW OF LINE 30N81W TO 22N84W BUT LATE TONIGHT. NOTE GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING THE MAX SLY FLOW AT 20 KT AHEAD OF CDFNT MOVING OFF TX COAST TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS W OF FRONT VEER RAPIDLY TO N 20-25 KT. NEW THINKING IS THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM NW FL BIG BEND TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING WITH FRONTAL REMNANTS MOVING BACK OVER CENTRAL GULF WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU AS SE RETURN FLOW TO 20 KT SETS UP AGAIN OVER WATERS W OF 85W. A THIRD CDFNT RACES OFF TX COAST LATE THU MORNING AND CLEAR SE WATERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT PLENTY OF MODEL ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER PACKAGES BUT GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING 25-30 KT WIND SHIFT WITH THIS STRONGER FRONT THU AND THU NIGHT DIMINISHING SOME FRI. ATLC WATERS... HIGH PRES CENTER CONTINUES SE OF BERMUDA AND SHIFTING E WITH TIME WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE W ALONG 26N TO BAHAMAS TO E OF APPROACHING CDFNT. THE FLOW W OF FRONT IS MAINLY W AT 20-25 KT WHILE SLY FLOW E OF FRONT STILL IN 20-30 KT RANGE. CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE FRONT OVER GULF STREAM ATTM. NORTHERN SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BERMUDA EARLY TONIGHT BUT THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WILL STALL OVER NW BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS WITH REMNANTS DRIFTING N THROUGH TUE. SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN NW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING TO GA COASTAL PLAINS WED NIGHT BUT STALLING AND LIFTING BACK N ALLOWING THE SLY FLOW TO INCREASE AGAIN THU NIGHT-FRI WITH THE NEXT FRONT OFF THE GA COAST FRI AFTERNOON REACHING FROM 31N75W TO SE FL FRI NIGHT AND ACCOMPANIED BY A 25-30 KT WINDS SHIFT OVER AREA N OF 27N. CARIBBEAN... SE WINDS OVER NW CARIBBEAN AT 15 KT...EXCEPT N-NE AT 15 KT SEAS 4-7 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL IMMEDIATELY BEHIND STALLING FRONT. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO VARIABLE 10 KT VICINITY OF STALLING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING BY EARLY TONIGHT AS FRONT SHIFTS BACK N OF AREA ALLOWING SE WINDS TO RESUME TO 15-20 KT GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE TONIGHT AND SPREADING E TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 82W BY MID WEEK. THE GRADIENT REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC HAS ELY TRADES AT 15 KT EXCEPT LOCAL EFFECTS OF ENHANCED WINDS/SEAS ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST. ELY TRADES INCREASE TO 15-20 KT S OF 14N LATE TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.