000 AGXX40 KNHC 291946 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR PORT CHARLOTTE TO COZUMEL MEXICO. UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS GENERATING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE GULF. MARINE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BASICALLY 10 TO 15 KT OVER MOST ALL OF THE GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRES IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO STARTING TONIGHT. THE AREA OF WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF INTO TUESDAY...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES BY THEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE AFTERNOON...AND WILL STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...THEN DISSIPATE AS ITS REMNANTS LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A THIRD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NW GULF ON THURSDAY...AND WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UP TO 30 KT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION HOWEVER...THIS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE BY LATE THU OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN... HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IS NOW SHIFTING FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST. THIS IN TURN IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY 15 KT TRADES OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...TO INCLUDE THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN YUCATAN COAST. A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATE 20 KT FLOW STILL IN PLACE OFF COLOMBIA...WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE. TRADE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. SE FLOW OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO 25 KT BY LATE TUE...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INCREASE FURTHER THU INTO FRI AS A THIRD COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO CAPE CANAVERAL. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THIS IS STARTING DISSIPATE. THE FRONT REACHES A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY MON AS IT WEAKENS...THEN BECOMES ORIENTED MORE E TO W ON TUE...DISSIPATING ALONG ROUGHLY 26N...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING INTO WED IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST...WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY WED AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THROUGH THE SE U.S. THE SECOND FRONT MOVES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE WED...THEN WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH...LEAVING HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU. THE PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF THU INTO FRI...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AGAIN OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST...AHEAD OF A THIRD COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST BY FRI AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.