000 AGXX40 KNHC 290636 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CDFNT FL PANHANDLE TO SE BAY OF CAMPECHE ATTM. CONVECTION FLARING AS FAR S AS 25N PER RADAR AND GOES W. WINDS REMAIN W-NW 20-25 KT SEAS TO 11 FT OVER WATERS N OF 25N W OF FRONT WHILE WINDS ARE NW-N 20-30 KT SEAS TO 12 FT S OF 25N W OF FRONT. THE GRADIENT E OF FRONT STILL SUPPORTING S WINDS 20-25 KT SEAS TO MAX OF 9 FT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO LINE FROM JUST S OF TAMPA BAY TO YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL OVER FL STRAITS AND EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TONIGHT. REMNANTS OF FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK N OVER STRAITS AND S CENTRAL WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT AND MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS N. ASSOCIATED WINDS SHOULD ONLY BE IN 10-15 KT RANGE VICINITY OF FRONTAL TROUGH. SE RETURN FLOW TO 20 KT OVER W GULF BY SUNRISE MON WITH CONDITIONS SPREADING E AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER ALL WATERS W OF 85W BY TUE AFTERNOON AS NEXT CDFNT MOVES OFF TX COAST. EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO STRENGTHEN THIS NEXT FRONT AND MOVE IT FURTHER E BEFORE STALLING IT. LATEST THINKING IS WINDS WILL BE 20-25 KT BOTH E AND W OF FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE WED AS FRONT STALLS FROM FL BIG BEND TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...THEN REMNANTS LINGER INTO THU AS SE RETURN FLOW TO 20 KT SETS UP AGAIN OVER NW AND S CENTRAL WATERS. ATLC WATERS... HIGH PRES CENTER IS SE OF BERMUDA WITH RIDGE W ALONG 29N ACROSS FLORIDA E OF CDFNT. THE SLY FLOW N OF 27N W OF 75W IS AT 20-25 KT AND EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT...WITH A GALE JUST N OF FORECAST AREA...LATE TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING OFF GEORGIA COAST RIGHT AT SUNRISE. CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE FRONT OVER FL AND ATLC COASTAL WATERS N OF 28N. WINDS W OF FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND MORE WLY THAN NW...THUS EXPECT SEAS TO 10 FT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT WITH ONLY SMALL AREA FOR W-NW SWELLS TO GENERATE. SLY WINDS E OF FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT S TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. N SWELLS CURRENTLY OVER WATERS E OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUNSET TODAY. FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BERMUDA LATE MON BUT STALL OVER NW BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS WITH REMNANTS DRIFTING N THROUGH TUE. SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN NW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST WED NIGHT BUT IMMEDIATELY STALLING OVER THE 0 EXTREME NW WATERS THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN... SE WINDS OVER NW CARIBBEAN AT 20-25 KT AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS APPROACHING FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY OVER EXTREME NW WATERS AND SHIFTS BACK N OF AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SE WINDS RESUME AT 15-20 KT GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT SPREADING E TO ALL WATERS W OF 82W BY MID WEEK. THE GRADIENT REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO MOSTLY 15 KT TONIGHT THROUGH WED EXCEPT LOCAL AREA ENHANCED WINDS/SEAS ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST. N AND NE SWELLS TO 10 FT OVER TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 15N THROUGH WED DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.