000 AGXX40 KNHC 231933 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 335 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER N WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLC COAST TODAY DROPS SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...GENERATING A DEEP LAYER CUT OFF LOW AND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO N WATERS TUE. SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ATLC WATERS STRETCHED FROM 31N54W TO 19N64W WILL BE WRAPPED INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH GALE FORCE TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AS THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES S...BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE FRONT BY FRI/SAT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND JOGS N. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THIS LOW. TO THE S...LIGHT TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROP N ATLC OFFSHORE ZONE UNTIL WED WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT...BRINGING WINDS TO 20 KT OVER N WATERS WED AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH FRI. SWELL SHOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 12 FT IN THE N PART OF THE ZONE BY THU NIGHT/FRI. AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...THE RIDGE TO ITS W WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLC UNTIL THU...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE FRI/SAT. CARIBBEAN... THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1120 UTC SHOWS WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 20 TO 25 KT SOUTH OF CUBA AND JAMAICA DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 75W BUILDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE SAME QUIKSCAT PASS AS WELL AS THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1454 UTC SHOW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED UNTIL THRU WHEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT/THU...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI. LATE FRI/SAT...EXPECT WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GULF OF MEXICO... THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1632 UTC SHOWED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE NW GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONGER AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS PUSHING EASTWARD AND GRAZING THE TX/LA COAST TUE NIGHT/WED WHILE THE RIDGE IS SLOW TO BUDGE OUT OF THE WESTERN ATLC. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE FRONT... PREVENTING IT FROM MOVING OFFSHORE ON TUE/WED AND LIFTING IT NORTHWARD LATE WED. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT DEEP LAYER TROUGH PULLS INTO THE PLAINS WED/THU. THE MODELS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT HERE...WITH THE NOGAPS THE FASTEST SOLUTION CARRYING THE FRONT OFF THE TX COAST...THE UKMET THE SLOWEST SOLUTION...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER MOVING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE...NOW WAITING UNTIL SAT TO DO SO. A SLOWER SOLUTION SEEMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE MORE STATIC LONGWAVE PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE PLAINS...WITH TROUGHING EAST AND WEST AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW...RELYING ON THE GFS SOLUTION. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF SAT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.