000 AGXX40 KNHC 201937 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK TROUGH IS DRIFTING W OVER THE SW WATERS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE E OF THE AXIS... SHEARED BY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM OUT OF THE NE TO E AND GENERALLY 10-15 KT...BESIDES FOR A NARROW SWATH OF 15-20 KT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE NE WATERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE AND SETTLES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE U.S. COAST SAT THROUGH TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL INCREASE E TO SE FLOW TO 20-25 KT FROM E-W SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. CORRESPONDINGLY...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN WATERS. BY WED...NWP MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE N WATERS WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX. CARIBBEAN... TRADES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LOW PRES A FEW HUNDRED NM N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N71W. SCATTEROMETER AND SFC DATA SHOWS THE STRONGEST FLOW (20 KT) IN THE USUAL ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TRADES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS SAT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE W ATLC. WW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS NE SWELL FLOWING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...ELEVATING SEAS TO 8 FT. ATLANTIC... WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 27N71W IS MOVING NE AT ABOUT 10 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM 31N76W TO N FLORIDA. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15-20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER W OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW ACCELERATE NE AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE FRONT. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CAUSE N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH N SWELL WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 13 FT. BY MON...THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA HELPING TO ORIENTATE THE STRONGER 20-25 KT FLOW S OF 27N. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AND WED. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.