000 AGXX40 KNHC 161945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FL SW TO NEAR 28N90W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N93W AND INTO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC WSW FROM CENTRAL FL TO 26N85W. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT ARE SHOWING N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS AT 2 FT. A VERY ABBREVIATED QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1246 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED THE LESSER RANGE OF 10-15 KT WINDS N OF 27N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE S OF 27N ADJACENT THE COAST OF MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 12 UTC THIS MORNING CONCURS WITH THESE REPORTED OBSERVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOSTLY OVERCAST LAYERS OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH THE TSTMS ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVING ON THE COAST BETWEEN THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND SE LOUISIANA AS NOTED ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON HAVE NOTED...AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF GULF E OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONGER SE WINDS OF 15 KT NEAR THE STRAITS OF FL WITH WINDS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT S OF 23N BETWEEN 88W-91W. OBSERVED SEA STATE RANGES FROM 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF TO 2 FT IN THE NE PORTION. WAVE-WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 1200 THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO OBSERVED SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GULF. NCEP MODEL GUIDANCE FRM 1200 UTC AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION IN THE GULF ...BUT ARE A LITTLE TO AHEAD IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RATHER SHARP AND AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS. MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH PASSING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND MON AND MON NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE U.S. TUE THROUGH WED. THIS WILL HELP ENERGIZE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOME INDUCING IT TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AS SHORT-LIVED COLD FRONT NOW EXPETCED TO REACHING FROM CENTRAL FL TO BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE. WITH THE TROUGH PULLING AWAY FROM THE GULF TUE AND WED...THE FRONT THEN GRADUALLY WASHES OUT FROM N FL TO BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED. HIGH PRES NUDGES S INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE THROUGH WED BEFORE MOVING E OF GULF WED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES...WITH SEAS REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT. MODELS HINT AT A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU THROUGH SAT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT THROUGH SAT. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NE-E 10-15 KT MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT OVER THE NE GULF...AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT EARLY WED THEN BECOME VARIABLE 5-10 KT LATE WED. WINDS INCREASE TO N-NE 15-20 KT LATE THU AND FRI OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER CONTROLLING THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT THIS AREA SEEN AS MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE NW PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER IN A GENERAL E-SE DIRECTION EXCEPT GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE 15-20 KT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE SEA WITH NE WINDS UP TO 30 KT NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS THERE ARE UP TO 10 FT. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1100 UTC THIS MORNING CAPTURED NE WINDS 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING E AND WEAKENING MON AND MON NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLC...EXPECT TRADES TO RESPOND BY WEAKENING OVER ALL ZONES OF THE SEA THROUGH SAT UNDER A MUCH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. SEAS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE SEA...EXCEPT REMAINING IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISHING TO 6-9 FT TUE NIGHT AND WED...TO 5-7 FT LATE WED AND 4-5 FT THU AND FRI. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL LOWER TO 3-5 FT IN THE EASTERN PORTION...AND TO 1-2 FT IN THE NW PORTION BY FRI. SW N ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THESE WATERS WITH WINDS NOW E-SE 15-20 KT W OF 72W. THIS WAS VERIFIED BY PARTIAL QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING. SEAS AT BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W ARE STILL AT 10 FT AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC THIS MORNING LOOKS ON PAR WITH CURRENT SEAS OF 9-10 FT ACROSS THE NORTHER WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE AS REPORTED BUOYS AND A FEW SHIPS OVER THOSE WATERS. THIS CURRENT SEASTATE WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE N OF ABOUT 16N THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE TO 6-9 FT MON AFTERNOON TO 6-7 FT TUE AND 4-7 FT WED EXCEPT 6-8 FT S OF 17N...AND TO 3-5 FT THU THROUGH SAT. RIDGE FROM 30N66W TO CENTRAL FL WILL SLIDE S TO ALONG 28N BY MON AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS MON NIGHT...THEN REACH FROM 31N66W TO S FL BY TUE NIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE W OF 75W WED AS THE PORTION E OF 75W MOVES TO THE FAR EASTERN WATERS LATE WED...AND E OF THE AREA BY EARLY THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S TO 27N. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA FRI AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME N-NE 15-20 KT WITH STRONGER WINDS OF NW-N 20-25 KT AND POSSIBLY REACHING TO 30 KT N OF 30N E OF 72W DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT LATE WED AND TO E-SE 15-20 KT THU E OF 74W AND 10-15 KT W OF 74W. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILD UP TO 11 FT WED E OF 75W...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT THU AS THE FRONT BECOMES A DIFFUSE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THU...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE E WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE 3-5 FT IN A N SWELL...EXCEPT 4-6 FT E OF THE SE BAHAMAS AND 2-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NE AND E PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC ON THU WHERE A LINGERING NW SWELLS OF 8-10 FT MAY STILL BE AROUND. ON FRI AND SAT...A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BEHIND IT. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FT IN N SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS E OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 28N E OF 77W WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS ELSEWHERE ON FRI SHOULD BE SE-S 10-15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 5-10 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS. SEAS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT SW OF BAHAMAS AND 5-5 FT ELSEWHERE E OF THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.