000 AGXX40 KNHC 160442 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1240 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 25N95W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N90W. E TO SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT ARE EVIDENT AROUND THE RIDGE N OF 25N. A 00Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NE TO E WINDS AROUND 20 KT JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS MIGHT BE DUE A MIGRATORY SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PENINSULA. AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE REMAINS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH W TEXAS TO NW MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE MID GULF NEAR 15N90W BY EARLY TUE...WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FURTHER SW TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THROUGH YUCATAN DAMPENS OUT. ASIDE FROM WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH...LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED. SURFACE HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE N CENTRAL GULF TUE INTO WED BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN SHIFTS EAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON THU AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT OVER MAINLY THE N CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN... CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONTINUING OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. NO DATA ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST...BY WINDS ARE POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT THERE AS WAS NOTED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N60W THAT HAS BEEN SHIFTING SE TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS EAST THROUGH THE NW ATLC. MEANWHILE NE SWELL UP TO 8 FT WITH PERIODS TO 12 SECOND CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MIXING WITH FRESH NE TO E SWELL RELATED TO THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW. CHANGE WILL COME TOMORROW AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST...WEAKENING THE HIGH PRES. THIS IN TURN ALLOWS TRADES TO FINALLY DIMINISH...WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECAYING TO BELOW 8 FT AT THE SAME TIME. TRADES DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT MOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST BY LATE WED...WITH A GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE WEATHER PATTERN TROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N30W...ALONG ROUGHLY 28N THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. EASTERLY TRADES AROUND 20 KT PERSIST S OF 25N THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND ANTILLES. THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS THROUGH TODAY...AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS NORTH OF THE AREA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG ROUGHLY 35N...REACHING 55W BY LATE WED. STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRES WILL IMPACT WATERS MAINLY N OF 27N THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT TRAILS THE LOW...REACHING A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY TUE NIGHT...AND FROM 31N55W TO PUERTO RICO BY LATE WED. NE SWELL UP TO 15 FT WILL ENVELOP THE OPEN WATERS TUE THROUGH THU. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST FRI...DELIVERING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO THE WATERS OFF N FLORIDA...FOLLOWED BY RENEWED STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.