000 AGXX40 KNHC 152010 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA SW TO 25N94W AND S TO INLAND MEXICO AT 19N96W. TO ITS E...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC WSW ALONG 25N26N TO NEAR 90W. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT ARE SHOWING N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS MUCH LOWERS THAN YESTERDAY NOW IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1130 UTC THIS MORNING MISSED THE AREA W OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOWED WINDS BECOMING MORE NELY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF PORTION HAVE DIMINISHED TO N-NE 15 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 12 UTC THIS CONCURS THAT WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOSTLY OVERCAST LAYERS OF MAINLY LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE WEAK ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONT WITH MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NW GULF. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MON MORNING AS A VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. APPROACHES TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON HAVE NOTED...AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF GULF E OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONGER SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT OVER AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FL AS WELL AS S OF 23N BETWEEN 88W-92W. OBSERVED SEA STATE RANGES FROM 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF TO 2-3 FT IN THE NE PORTION. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 1200 THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH OBSERVED SEAS OVER THE GULF. 1200 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION. THE UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SWINGS ACROSS NE TEXAS AND THE SE U.S. MON THROUGH WED INDUCING THE STATIONARY TO BECOME A COLD FRONT THAT STAGGERS INTO NE GULF MON THROUGH TUE. IT BECOMES DIFFUSE FROM NEAR FL PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT AND TUE. HIGH PRES NUDGES S INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE THROUGH WED BEFORE MOVING E OF GULF THU. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SEAS REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NE-E 10-15 KT SUN THROUGH TUE OVER THE NE GULF...AND BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT EARLY WED THEN BECOME VARIABLE 5-10 KT LATE WED THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE SEA IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING ATLC HIGH PRES TRADES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NE-E 20-25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKENING TO 15-20 KT TUE AND WED. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO LOWER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AREA...EXCEPT REMAINING IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISHING TO 6-9 FT LATE TUE...TO 5-7 FT WED AND 4-5 FT THU AND FRI. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THE SEA BY THU WITH RANGES OF 4-5 FT IN THE EASTERN PORTION...AND 2-3 FT IN THE WESTERN PORTION AND 3-4 FT OVER REMAINDER OF THE SW PORTION. SW N ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL N ATLC...CORRECTED TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THESE WATERS WITH WINDS NOW E-SE 15-20 KT W OF 72W. THIS WAS VERIFIED BY PARTIAL QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING. SEAS AT BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W ARE STILL AT 10 FT AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC THIS MORNING LOOKS ON PAR WITH CURRENT SEAS OF 9-10 FT ACROSS THE NORTHER WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE AS REPORTED BUOYS AND A FEW SHIPS OVER THOSE WATERS. THIS CURRENT SEASTATE WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE N OF ABOUT 16N THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE TO 6-9 FT MON AFTERNOON TO 6-7 FT TUE AND 4-7 FT WED EXCEPT 6-8 FT S OF 17N...AND TO 3-5 FT THU AND FRI. RIDGE FROM 30N66W TO CENTRAL FL WILL SLIDE S TO ALONG 28N BY MON AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS MON NIGHT...THEN REACH FROM 31N66W TO S FL BY TUE NIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE W OF 75W WED AS THE PORTION E OF 75W MOVES TO THE FAR EASTERN WATERS LATE WED...AND E OF THE AREA BY EARLY THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S TO 27N. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA FRI AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME N-NE 15-20 KT WITH STRONGER WINDS OF NW-N 20-25 KT AND POSSIBLY REACHING TO 30 KT N OF 30N E OF 72W DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT LATE WED AND TO E-SE 15-20 KT THU E OF 74W AND 10-15 KT W OF 74W. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILD UP TO 11 FT WED E OF 75W...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT THU AS THE FRONT BECOMES A DIFFUSE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THU...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE E WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE 3-5 FT IN A N SWELL...EXCEPT 4-6 FT E OF THE SE BAHAMAS AND 2-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NE AND E PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC ON THU WHERE A LINGERING NW SWELLS OF 8-10 FT MAY STILL BE AROUND. ON FRI...A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BEHIND IT. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FT IN N SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS E OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 28N E OF 77W WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS ELSEWHERE ON FRI SHOULD BE SE-S 10-15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 5-10 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS. SEAS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT SW OF BAHAMAS AND 5-5 FT ELSEWHERE E OF THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.