000 AGXX40 KNHC 141945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW LOUISIANA COAST SW TO 25N94W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO AND INLAND MEXICO FROM THERE. TO ITS E...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO NEAR 88W. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT ARE SHOWING MOSTLY N WINDS OF 15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1200 UTC THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT DEPICTED NW-NW WINDS OF 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF...AND SLIGHTER STRONGER N WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. THE WINDS IN THE SW GULF TURNED OUT TO BE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED AS A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT RESULTING BETWEEN THE WEAK LOW AND HIGH PRES NOSING S OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO WAS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE WINDS. GFS GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING DID HINT THAT THESE WINDS MY BE STRONGER FOR TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOSTLY OVERCAST LAYERS OF MOSTLY LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG AND W OF THE FRONT WITH MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE NW GULF. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO MON MORNING AS A VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. APPROACHES TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF GULF TO E OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE NE PART. OBSERVED SEA STATE RANGES FROM 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF TO ABOUT 1 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 1200 THIS MORNING AGAIN APPEARS REASONABLE WITH OBSERVED SEAS OVER THE GULF. 1200 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE REGIONAL NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WITH DEPICTING WEAK LOW PRES ALONG IT. GFS ESEMBEL GUIDANCE ALSO IS IN LINE WITH THE MODELS. THE UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SWINGS ACROSS NE TEXAS AND THE SE U.S. MON THROUGH WED INDUCING THE STATIONARY TO BECOME A COLD FRONT THAT STAGGERS INTO NE GULF MON THROUGH TUE. IT BECOMES DIFFUSE FROM NEAR FL PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGH AND TUE. AN ATLC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO THEN DROP S INTO THE NE GULF LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES NUDGES WSW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SEAS REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH 10-15 KT FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO N 15 KT SAT...AND BECOME NE-E 15 KT SUN AND NE-E 15 KT MON AND TUE OVER THE NE GULF...AND E 10-15 KT WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE SEA IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING ATLC HIGH PRES TRADES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NE-E 20-25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKENING TO 15-20 KT TUE AND WED. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO LOWER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AREA...EXCEPT REMAINING UP TO 8 FT NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST SUN THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD S ACROSS THE AREA IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND N TROPICAL N ATLC ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THESE WATERS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1044 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED THESE WINDS. SEAS AT BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W HAVE BUILD UP TO 10 FT PER LATEST REPORT. THESE WINDS MARKS THE SURGE OF CONTINUING N TO NE COOL AIR FLOW THAT IS SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL WINDS THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KT LATE SAT THROUGH MON AND DIMINISHING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT TUE. A SURGE OF LARGE MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS...POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT PER LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL INVADE THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BEGINNING THROUGH SUN...THEN SUBSIDE TO 7-9 FT MON AND 6-7 FT TUE AND 4-6 FT WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE NEAR 28N66W WITH A RIDGE W TO FL. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE TO ALONG 28N BY SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO JUST N OF 31N AND BECOMES STATIONARY. THE FRONT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS BY LATE MON...AND FROM 30N65W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MON AND TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING NE 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT ..AND NE 20-25 KT W OF 79W WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC SUN THROUGH WED WITH SEAS 3-5 FT IN A MAINLY NE SWELL...EXCEPT 4-6 FT E OF THE SE BAHAMAS AND 2-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.