000 AGXX40 KNHC 131945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST SW TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N96W...THEN CONTINUES SSW TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. TO ITS E...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO NEAR 88W. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT ARE SHOWING N-NE 15-20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM NEAR 1230 UTC THIS MORNING CLEARLY REVEALED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MOSTLY OVERCAST LAYERS OF MOSTLY LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF RAIN AND FEW SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG AND W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROVIDES ADDED SUPPORT TO THIS ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN AND ARE REPORTING SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF GULF TO E OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE NE PART AND SUSTAINED SE WINDS OF 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR SE PART NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA AND STRAITS OF FL. OBSERVED SEA STATE RANGES FROM 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF TO ABOUT 1 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 1200 THIS MORNING LOOKS REASONABLE WITH OBSERVED SEAS OVER THE AREA...BUT AGAIN WAS UNDER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS BY ABOUT 2-3 FT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. 1200 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM ARE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WITH DEPICTING WEAK LOW PRES ALONG IT. THE UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NE TEXAS AND THE SE U.S. MON THROUGH WED INDUCING THE STATIONARY TO BECOME A COLD FRONT THAT STAGGERS INTO THE MIDDLE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM NEAR FL PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE MON. AN ATLC BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO THEN DROP S INTO THE NE GULF LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES NUDGES WSW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF IN ITS WAKE THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SEAS REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH 10-15 KT FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO N 15 KT SAT...AND BECOME NE-E 15 KT SUN AND NE-E 15 KT MON AND TUE OVER THE NE GULF...AND E 10-15 KT BY WED. IDEAL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SUN THROUGH WED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE SEA IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING ATLC HIGH PRES TRADES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NE-E 20-25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKENING TO 15-20 KT TUE AND WED. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO LOWER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AREA...EXCEPT REMAINING UP TO 8 FT NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST SUN THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO BUILD S ACROSS THE AREA IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND N TROPICAL N ATLC ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THESE WATERS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1044 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED THESE WINDS. SEAS AT BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W HAVE BUILD UP TO 10 FT PER LATEST REPORT. THESE WINDS MARKS THE SURGE OF CONTINUING N TO NE COOL AIR FLOW THAT IS SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL WINDS THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KT LATE SAT THROUGH MON AND DIMINISHING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT TUE. A SURGE OF LARGE MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS...POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT PER LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL INVADE THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BEGINNING THROUGH SUN...THEN SUBSIDE TO 7-9 FT MON AND 6-7 FT TUE AND 4-6 FT WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE NEAR 28N66W WITH A RIDGE W TO FL. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE TO ALONG 28N BY SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO JUST N OF 31N AND BECOMES STATIONARY. THE FRONT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS BY LATE MON...AND FROM 30N65W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MON AND TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING NE 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT ...AND NE 20-25 KT W OF 79W WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC SUN THROUGH WED WITH SEAS 3-5 FT IN A MAINLY NE SWELL...EXCEPT 4-6 FT E OF THE SE BAHAMAS AND 2-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.