000 AGXX40 KNHC 130533 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO. BUOY AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT INDICATE 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG ROUGHLY 29N. FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE SW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT...AS IT STALLS AND WEAKENS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SUN. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES AREA FORMING ALONG THE STALLING FROM FRI...AND MOVING NE THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SAT. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE DAMPENS OUT SAT INTO SUN AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. THIS ALLOWS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE NE GULF TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MIDWEEK. CARIBBEAN... 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA IS THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON A SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXTENDING FROM NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 00Z SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. IN ADDITION...LONG PERIOD NE SWELL UP TO 8 FT NEAR THE ANEGADA AND MONA PASSAGES. TRADES WILL DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THE LARGE NE SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FT. SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W... HIGH PRES IS CENTERED BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG 28N TO SOUTH OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS MAINTAINS FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OF 24N THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUOY DATA ACROSS THE REGION SHOW LONG PERIOD NE SWELL CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...GENERATED FROM A DEEP AND PERSISTENT LOW PRES AREA WELL TO THE EAST. BUOY 41043 NE OF PUERTO RICO REPORTED PERIODS AS HIGH AS 15 SECONDS EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 11 FT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY HIGH SURF ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...AS WELL AS LOCALLY ROUGH PASSAGES IN THE BAHAMAS. THE SWELL AREA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE NE. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE MON AND SHIFTS EASTWARD TUE AND WED AS IT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.