000 AGXX40 KNHC 130104 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 900 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2009 ...UPDATED SW N ATLC SUN WINDS SUN THROUGH TUE... MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM MOBILE BAY ALABAMA SW TO ALONG THE SE LOUISIANA COAST AND SW TO 28N95W...THEN S IN TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE AND W TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST W TO NEAR 88W. CURRENT BUOY AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO N 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS ALREADY UP TO 7 FT AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOY 42020. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY WHAT APPEARS TO A ROPE CLOUD FEATURE WITH OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO ITS W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ARE SHOWING SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF...EXCEPT VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE NE PART AND SUSTAINED SE WINDS OF 15 KT OVER THE FAR SE PART AND STRAITS OF FL. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 1100 UTC THIS MORNING SUPPORTED THESE WIND OBSERVATIONS. OBSERVED SEA STATE RANGES FROM 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF TO ABOUT 1 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE III FROM BOTH 1200 AND 1800 UTC TODAY APPEARED PRETTY REASONABLE WITH THE OBSERVED SEAS OVER THE AREA...BUT WAS UNDER FORECASTING WAVE HEIGHTS BY ABOUT 2-3 FT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/NAM/UKMET AND ECMWF FROM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS HANDLED THE TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF PRETTY WELL...AND WILL LEAN TO THIS GUIDANCE FOR ITS FUTURE FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NE TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON THU AS IT DAMPENS OUT. THIS MEANS THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE E ACROSS THE NW GULF AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LATER ON FRI THROUGH MON. MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DIGS FAR ENOUGH S OVER E TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA ON MON...AND SLIDES TO THE SE STATES ON TUE SUPPORTING THE FRONT'S EASTWARD PROGRESS FURTHER E INTO THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE MIDDLE GULF BY LATE MON...AND DISSIPATE FROM NEAR FL PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ON E OF THE SE U.S TUE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SEAS REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH 10-15 KT FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO N 15-20 KT SAT...AND BECOMING NE-E 15 KT SUN AND NE 15 KT MON AND TUE. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL ALSO BE FOUND OVER REMAINDER OF THE GULF LATE SAT INTO TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE SEA IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING ATLC HIGH PRES TRADES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NE-E 20-25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKENING TO 15-20 KT TUE. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO LOWER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AREA...EXCEPT REMAINING UP TO 8 FT NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST SUN THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL N ATLC...UPDATED HIGH PRES BUILDING SSE ACROSS THE AREA IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND N TROPICAL N ATLC ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THESE WATERS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING PICKED UP ON THESE WINDS. SEAS AT BUOY 41043 NEAR 21N65W HAVE BUILD UP TO 10 FT PER LATEST REPORT. THESE WINDS MARK THE ONSET OF COLD-AIR ADVECTION THAT IS SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A RECENTLY DEPARTED FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL WINDS THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 15-20 KT LATE SAT THROUGH MON AND DIMINISHING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT TUE. A SURGE OF LARGE MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS...POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT PER LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL INVADE THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BEGINNING THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 9-11 FT SAT...8-10 FT SUN AND 7-8 FT MON AND 6-7 FT TUE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE NEAR 28N66W WITH A RIDGE W TO FL. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE TO ALONG 28N BY SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TO JUST N OF 31N AND BECOMES STATIONARY. THE FRONT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS BY LATE MON...AND FROM 30N65W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MON AND TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING NE 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT ...AND NE 20-25 KT W OF 79W WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT IN A MAINLY NE SWELL...EXCEPT 4-6 FT E OF THE SE BAHAMAS AND 2-3 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.