000 AGXX40 KNHC 111945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THIS AFTERNOON ARE SHOWING SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF...EXCEPT VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE NE PART AND STRONGER SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE WESTERN AND NW GULF DUE TO RETURN FLOW PATTERN KEPT IN CHECK BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED HIGH CELL OF 1024 MB NEAR 30N85W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1130 UTC THIS MORNING AGAIN ALSO SHOWED MOSTLY SE 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF S OF ABOUT 26N. BUOY 42002 EARLIER NOTED SE WINDS OF 20 KT...BUT IS NOW DOWN TO 15 KT WITH MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS OF 5 FT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO NOTED SE SUSTAINED OF 15 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL AND NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. SEAS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF WITH MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 2 FT...AND 3-4 FT OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING PER 12 UTC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/NAM/UKMET AND ECMWFHR. THE NOGAPS IS STILL THE OUTLIER BEING SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF. THE UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NE TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON THU AS IT DAMPENS OUT. THIS MEANS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE MOVING E ACROSS THE NW GULF AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LATER FRI THROUGH SUN. MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DIGS FAR ENOUGH S OVER E TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA ON MON TO SUPPORT THE FRONT'S FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS PERHAPS FURTHER E INTO THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE MIDDLE GULF BY LATE MON. NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY INCREASE SOME AT THAT TIME...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO KICK UP THE SEAS. IN THE SHORT TERM... EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THU AND THU NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO NE 10-15 KT FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO N 15-20 KT SAT...AND BECOMING NE-E SUN AND N ON MON GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER REMAINDER OF THE GULF LATE SAT INTO MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE SEA IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING ATLC HIGH PRES TRADES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE NE-E 20-25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH SAT...THEN 20 KT SUN AND MON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO LOWER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AREA...EXCEPT REMAINING UP TO 8 FT NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST SUN AND MON. SW N ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE TAIL END OF A CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH 22N65W AND EXTENDS WNW TO 24N74W. THIS FRONT IS QUICKLY MOVING SE...AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND SE PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC OVERNIGHT INTO THU...THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN JUST E OF THIS ZONE FRI. THIS COLD FRONT IS CONNECTED TO A GALE CENTER NE OF THE AREA...THAT IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PUSHING THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE TWO ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN ENE OF THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF N-NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND LARGE SEAS...POSSIBLY IN THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT PER LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL INVADE THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WED THROUGH FRI. SEAS THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT ACROSS THIS ZONE LATE SAT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE NEAR 28N66W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO S FL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVER THE SW N ATLC BY SUN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE PORTION WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL ACCOUNT FOR A SMALL SWATH OF NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS 6-9 FT IN AN E SWELL. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.