000 AGXX40 KNHC 101945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THIS AFTERNOON ARE SHOWING SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF... WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF DUE TO RETURN FLOW PATTERN SUSTAINED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT EXETNDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PASSED 12 UTC THIS MORNING ALSO SHOWED MOSTLY SE 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH A FEW WIND BARBS OF 25 KT. BUOY 42002 IS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 7 FT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 2 FT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AS THEN THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES E AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING PER GFS/NAM 12 UTC MODEL SOLNS. THE UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NE TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON THU AS IT DAMPENS OUT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU THROUGH FRI BEFORE MOVING E AGAIN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT IN THE VICINITY OF SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR 25N95W ON SUN. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THU THROUGH FRI BEFORE WEAKENING TO N 5-10 KT AND NE-E 10 KT SUN. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL EXIST OVER THE GULF LATE SAT INTO SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS THE SURFACE PRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE SEA IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING ATLC HIGH PRES TRADES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE NE-E 20-25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH SAT...THEN 20 KT SUN. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO LOWER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT UP TO 7 FT NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST BY SUN. ATLANTIC... NW TO N SWELL WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY...POSITION... AND TIMING OF THIS LOW...ALONG WITH THE OVERALL GEOMETRY AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW WILL BE STEEPENED BY A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. IN RESPONSE...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW BEGINNING AT 11/0000 UTC. THE LOW WILL THEN TAKE MORE OF AN EASTWARD TRACK ONCE IT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK HAVING PROPAGATED EAST OF THE ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGH AXIS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS BY LATE WEEK. GIVEN THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE DYNAMIC FETCH REGION AND ENHANCED WINDS IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER SEA HEIGHTS WITH THIS LOW...WITH UP TO 23 FT SEA HEIGHTS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS E OF 60W TRACKING SOUTHWARD AS NW TO N SWELL ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER. 000 AGXX40 KNHC 101945 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THIS AFTERNOON ARE SHOWING SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF... WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF DUE TO RETURN FLOW PATTERN SUSTAINED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT EXETNDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PASSED 12 UTC THIS MORNING ALSO SHOWED MOSTLY SE 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH A FEW WIND BARBS OF 25 KT. BUOY 42002 IS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 7 FT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE MUCH LESS IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 2 FT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AS THEN THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES E AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING PER GFS/NAM 12 UTC MODEL SOLNS. THE UPPER LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NE TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON THU AS IT DAMPENS OUT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU THROUGH FRI BEFORE MOVING E AGAIN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRI AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT IN THE VICINITY OF SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR 25N95W ON SUN. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THU THROUGH FRI BEFORE WEAKENING TO N 5-10 KT AND NE-E 10 KT SUN. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL EXIST OVER THE GULF LATE SAT INTO SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS THE SURFACE PRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE SEA IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING ATLC HIGH PRES TRADES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE NE-E 20-25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH SAT...THEN 20 KT SUN. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO LOWER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT UP TO 7 FT NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST BY SUN. ATLANTIC... NW TO N SWELL WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY...POSITION... AND TIMING OF THIS LOW...ALONG WITH THE OVERALL GEOMETRY AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW WILL BE STEEPENED BY A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. IN RESPONSE...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW BEGINNING AT 11/0000 UTC. THE LOW WILL THEN TAKE MORE OF AN EASTWARD TRACK ONCE IT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK HAVING PROPAGATED EAST OF THE ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGH AXIS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS BY LATE WEEK. GIVEN THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE DYNAMIC FETCH REGION AND ENHANCED WINDS IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER SEA HEIGHTS WITH THIS LOW...WITH UP TO 23 FT SEA HEIGHTS EXPECTED ACROSS LOCATIONS E OF 60W TRACKING SOUTHWARD AS NW TO N SWELL ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.