000 AGXX40 KNHC 092019 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 415 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 MB HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO S FL AND THEN NW ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AND INTO THE ARKLATEX. THIS IS MAINTAINING AN E TO SE 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE SRN WATERS EXTENDING NW INTO THE W CENTRAL GULF E OF 95W...AND STRONGEST ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY 5-15 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (~ 20 KT) EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE FL STRAITS AND THE W GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-7 FT OVER THE W WATERS WHERE THE FETCH HAS BEEN MOST PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT IN THIS WIND REGIME...AND NEAR THE FL STRAITS IN WIND GENERATED WAVES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SINK ALONG THE FAR NW AND N CENTRAL COASTS LATE WED THROUGH THU...THEN STALL AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT INTO THE NE U.S. INCREASING RETURN SLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND MAY PUSH THE FRONT BACK INLAND AS A WARM FRONT. CARIBBEAN... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN... BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND THE HIGH PRES CENTERED BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 20-30 KT NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB BETWEEN 68W-82W...AND WINDS TO GALE FORCE (30-35 KT) NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73.5W AND 78W...AS INDICATED BY MORNING HI-RES QSCAT PASSES. THIS STRONG FLOW IS MAINTAINING A BROAD ZONE OF HIGH SEAS OF 9-14 FT ACROSS THE CARIB W OF 70W...EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIB...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS AT 14-16 FT IN THE SW CARIB. 15-25 KT NELY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIB E OF 70W...WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FT...AND SEAS OF 9-11 FT AND OCNLY HIGHER IN THE ATLC PASSAGES...DUE TO THE ONGOING NE SWELL EVENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE PEAKED FOR THIS ENHANCED EVENT...EXCEPT FOR THE ATLC PASSAGES WHERE HIGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN LARGE LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL...AND WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW TRACKS NE. THE GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE EARLY WED MORNING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC... THE LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM DOMINATING THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY ENE TODAY...AND WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 28N46W. WATER VAPOR AND VIS STLT IMAGERY TODAY CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW CIRCULATIONS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A MEAN CENTER...BUT THE SFC WIND FIELD SUGGESTED BY QUIKSCAT PASSES AND A FEW OPPORTUNE SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE DOMINANT LOW HAS ROTATED AROUND INTO THE NE QUAD OF THE CIRCULATION...CENTERED NEAR 28.5N44W. THE BROAD SCALE WIND FIELD HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE NE TO SW DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...REFLECTING THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALIGNMENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND W ATLC HIGH IS MAINTAINING A BROAD SWATH OF STRONG WINDS AT OR JUST BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WRN SIDE OF THE LOW BETWEEN 30N AND 22N...WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KT REMAIN ACROSS THE N AND E SEMICIRCLES. NOW THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ENE...THE WIND ENVELOPE AND ASSOCIATED FETCHES HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT ENE AS WELL...AND EXTREME WAVE GROWTH AND FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS HAVE ENDED WITH THIS SYSTEM. PEAK WAVE GROWTH/HEIGHTS HAVE ENDED ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE LOW...AS WERE INDICATED BY ATLC BUOYS SURROUNDING THE NE CARIBBEAN...WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT IN LONGER PERIOD NELY SWELL MEASURED THIS AFTERNOON. WAVE SPECTRUM INDICATED BY THESE BUOYS VIA THE NDBC WEB SITE INDICATE THE BROAD SPECTRA OF WAVE ENERGY OF THE PAST 2 DAYS HAS NARROWED TO LONGER PERIOD SWELL OF 12-14 SECONDS. SEAS...AND SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY TONIGHT AS PEAK ENERGY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SWD INTO NE S AMERICA AND THE S ATLC...AND THEN SUBSIDE MORE QUICKLY TUE THROUGH WED AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. THE HIGH ACROSS THE W ATLC WILL RIDGE ESE INTO THE SUBTROPICS BEHIND THE EXITING LOW TUE-WED...RESULTING IN WINDS ABATING N TO NE AROUND 15 KT BEHIND THE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SIMILAR LOW PRES SETUP AGAIN BY MID-WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS TO THESE SAME AREAS...WITH W TO NW GALES POSSIBLE N OF 27N AND E OF 62W AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .GALE WARNING FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AMZ084 AND AMZ086 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.