000 AGXX40 KNHC 090703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRES IS NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ALONG THE N GULF COAST. THIS IS PROVIDING E TO SE 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE SRN WATERS...STRONGEST IN THE FL STRAITS...AND MAINLY 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NRN HALF. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (~ 20 KT) EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE FL STRAITS AND THE W GULF. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-7 FT OVER THE W WATERS WHERE THE FETCH IS MOST PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT IN THIS WIND REGIME...AND NEAR THE FL STRAITS IN WIND GENERATED WAVES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS LATE WED OR THU BUT QUICKLY STALL AS IT LOSES UPPER SUPPORT. CARIBBEAN... TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND HIGH PRES CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED NM NE OF THE NW BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING 20-30 KT NE TO E WINDS BETWEEN 68W-82W AND TO GALE FORCE (30-35 KT) NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS INDICATED BY A HI-RES QSCAT PASS AROUND 00Z. THIS STRONG FLOW HAS PRODUCED A BROAD ZONE OF HIGH SEAS OF 9-14 FT ACROSS ALL BUT NW CARIB...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS AT 14-16 FT IN THE SW CARIB. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE PEAKED FOR THIS ENHANCED WIND EVENT...EXCEPT FOR THE ATLC PASSAGES WHERE HIGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ANOTHER 24 HOURS IN LARGE LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW TRACKS NE. THE GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE TUE NIGHT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC... A LARGE 1003 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC. A FEW CIRCULATIONS ARE ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER BUT THE SFC WIND FIELD INDICATES THAT THE DOMINATE LOW IS THE SRN CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N50W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND W ATLC HIGH PRES NEAR 28N73W IS MAINTAINING A BROAD SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS N AND E OF OUR OFFSHORE ZONES. NLY 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ZONE AND MAY BE APPROACHING 30 KT OVER THE FAR NE CORNER. THIS BROAD NLY FETCH HAS PROVIDED FOR CONTINUED WAVE GROWTH ACROSS THIS LARGE AREA W OF 50W...WITH SEAS IN THE 12-24 FT BETWEEN 20N AND 30N. N-NE SWELL AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BEYOND TUE AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SIMILAR LOW PRES SETUP AGAIN BY MID-WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS TO THESE SAME AREAS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .GALE WARNING FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AMZ084 AND AMZ086 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.