000 AGXX40 KNHC 082003 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM EST SUN MAR 8 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRES HAS BUILT SW OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ALONG THE N GULF COAST. THIS IS PROVIDING SELY 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY TO 25 KT IN THE FLA STRAITS JUST OFF N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH LIGHTER FLOW OVER THE NE GULF WATERS NEAREST TO THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE LITTLE CHANGE...AND SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (~ 20 KT) EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE W GULF. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-7 FT OVER THE W/NW WATERS WHERE THE FETCH IS MOST PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT IN THIS WIND REGIME...AND NEAR THE STRAITS IN WIND GENERATED WAVES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS LATE WED OR THU. CARIBBEAN... THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...ALLOWING THE STRONG W ATLC HIGH PRES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH IS PRODUCING 20-30 KT NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MORNING HI-RES QSCAT PASSES CONTINUED TO INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ESTIMATED JUST BELOW GALE FORCE DOWNWIND OF THE GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND IN ALL ATLC PASSAGES. THIS STRONG FLOW HAS PRODUCED A BROAD ZONE OF HIGH SEAS OF 10-15 FT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR E AND THE ENTIRE NW CARIB...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS AT 15-17 FT IN THE SW CARIB. EXCEPT FOR THE ATLC PASSAGES WHERE HIGH SEAS OF 10-15 FT WILL PERSIST ANOTHER 24 HOURS IN LARGE LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE PEAKED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FOR THIS ENHANCED WIND EVENT... AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...AND THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND EXITS THE REGION. THE GALE WARNING IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE EARLY MON NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC... MERGER OF SURFACE LOWS CONTINUES TODAY AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SUBTROPICS...WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 27N50W. STLT IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES SEVERAL LLVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING ABOUT THIS MEAN CENTER. A MORNING HI-RES QUIKSCAT PASS SEEMED TO RESOLVED RELATIVELY WELL TWO TO THESE CIRCULATIONS....WITH A WESTERN MOST CENTER NEAR 26N52W APPEARING TO BE THE DOMINANT CENTER. THIS DEEP LAYERED LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E-SE DURING THE NEXT 12 HRS OR SO...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT GRADUALLY OUT TO THE E-NE THEN NE MON THROUGH TUE. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND W ATLC HIGH PRES NEAR 28N72W IS MAINTAINING A BROAD SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS N AND E OF OUR OFFSHORE ZONES...AND WERE INDICATED W OF THE LOW...EXTENDING W TO 59W...AND FROM 33N TO 23N. NLY 20-25 KT WINDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY NW OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WWD TO 67W AND SW INTO THE ENTIRE NE AND E CARIBBEAN... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE TROPICS FROM 20N44W TO WELL SE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AT 10N53W. THIS BROAD NLY FETCH TO THE W OF THIS DEEP LAYERED LOW HAS PROVIDED FOR CONTINUED WAVE GROWTH ACROSS THIS LARGE AREA W OF 50W...WITH SEAS FORECAST BY WWIII 15 TO 25 FT BETWEEN 20N AND 30N. N-NE SWELL AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SUB TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 65W AND 60W...AS WELL AS THE WATERS AND ISLANDS OF THE NE AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. PEAK MAXIMUM COMBINED SEAS OF 10-14 FT ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SIMILAR LOW PRES SETUP AGAIN BY MID-WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS TO THESE SAME AREAS. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .GALE WARNING FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.