000 AGXX40 KNHC 071925 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2009 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED ABOUT 120 NM SW OF BERMUDA THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING A RIDGE W-SW TO FLORIDA THEN W ALONG THE N GULF COAST. THIS IS PROVIDING E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE NE AND SE GULF...AND WITH SELY FLOW ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT SLY WINDS OVER THE FAR NW GULF. MORNING QUIKSCAT PASSES AND SURFACE OBS SUGGESTED THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 KT...CONTINUED BLOWING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS AND ACROSS THE SE/S MIDDLE GULF S OF 25N AND INTO THE LOWER TEXAS OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS RIDGE WILL REORGANIZING AND WEAKEN OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY THRU SUN AND THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN MINOR FLUCTUATIONS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KT) EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE W GULF. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5-8 FT OVER THE W/NW WATERS WHERE THE FETCH IS SIGNIFICANT IN THIS WIND REGIME...AND NEAR THE STRAITS IN WIND GENERATED WAVES. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE NW WATERS BY WED...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLY SPREAD IN THE NWP GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE. CARIBBEAN... A SHEAR LINE REMAINED DEFINED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...WITH LATEST STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTING THAT IT HAS MOVED ACROSS BARBADOS TO THE GRENADINES TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR VELA DE CORO. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SHEAR LINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING 20-30 KT NE TO E WINDS NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. HI-RES QSCAT PASSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS CONTINUED TO BE ESTIMATED JUST BELOW GALE FORCE BY SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBS NEAR THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES...AS WELL AS DOWNWIND OF THE GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS STRONG FLOW IS PRODUCING A BROAD ZONE OF HIGH SEAS OF 10-13 FT ACROSS ALL BUT THE E AND NW CARIB...PEAKING AT 15-16 FT IN THE SW CARIB...AND WILL BUILD A FEW MORE FT AS THE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. ATLANTIC... AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE L/W UPPER TROUGH TO THE N...WITH TWO SEPARATE VORT CENTERS REFLECTED WITH SURFACE LOWS...AND BOTH YIELDING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE W AND NW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE TWO LOWS WILL GRADUALLY MERGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND BECOME AN OCCLUDED LOW. STRONG WINDS TO THE W OF THESE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE HAS INDUCED HIGH SEAS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE ATLC TO THE N AND NE OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...WITH THESE WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO SLAM THE N AND NE NE COASTS TODAY. A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS AS FAR S AS 22N...AND TO THE SW OF THE SRN MOST LOW...AND THE GALE WARNING WAS GREATLY EXPANDED TO THE SW. AS THESE LOWS MERGE...GALE FORCE AND GREATER NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ALREADY LARGE SEAS AND PRODUCE A TRAPPED FETCH SCENARIO TO YIELD SEAS IN EXCESS OF 25 FT TO THE W OF THE LOW MERGER. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE N AND NE CARIB ISLANDS AND MOVE THROUGH THE PASSES THROUGH TUE. GRADIENT WINDS OF 20 KT WELL TO THE W OF THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAHAMAS AND SRN FLORIDA...WITH 20-25 KT FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT S OF 22N. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... .GALE WARNING FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.